2020年经济学人 查理曼专栏--针对时下土耳其局势,葛兰运动难辞其咎(2)（在线收听）

The Gulenists’ success was their undoing. By the early 2010s, they had amassed enough power to pose a threat to Mr Erdogan. “There was a time when they virtually ruled Turkey,” says Gokhan Bacik, an academic formerly close to the movement, now living in exile. They overreached by trying to torpedo peace talks with Kurdish insurgents, going after Turkey’s intelligence chief in 2012, and implicating Mr Erdogan in a corruption scandal the year after. Turkey’s strongman responded by declaring war on the cemaat and removing its loyalists from the bureaucracy. The purges went into overdrive after the coup attempt.

葛兰主义者的成功同样也是他们失败的原因。到21世纪10年代初，他们已经累积了足够的权力，足以对埃尔多安总统造成威胁。“曾经有一段时间，他们实际上已经统治了土耳其，”戈汗·巴西克说，他是一位曾经与葛兰运动关系密切的学者，现在流亡海外。葛兰主义者们贪功致败，他们试图破坏与库尔德叛乱分子的和谈，在2012年追杀土耳其情报局长，并在一年后将埃尔多安总统牵扯进一桩腐败丑闻中。作为回应，土耳其的这位独裁者向葛兰社群宣战，并将其效忠者驱逐出土耳其官僚机构。政变发生后，清剿进入了超速状态。

Much about the night of the putsch remains unclear. Some 250 people died in what resembled an army mutiny accompanied by a series of terror attacks more than a traditional coup. The official version, in which Gulenist sleeper cells in the armed forces awoke to take over the country all on their own, seems as watertight as a teabag. To this day, Turkey’s government has not produced evidence of what the plotters planned to do once they seized power.The coup itself appears to have been the work of a small but diverse coalition. Yet there is no doubt that the Gulenists played a big part. At least some of the officers who directed the violence turned out to be graduates of the Gulen system.Two of the civilians involved appear to have seen Mr Gulen in America only days earlier. Analysts agree there is no chance Gulenist operatives would have acted without their leader’s approval. Mr Gulen denies involvement.

关于政变之夜的许多事情仍不清楚。相较于传统形式上的政变，这次政变更类似于一场军事政变，伴随着一系列的恐怖袭击，大约250人死亡。在官方版本中，蛰伏在武装部队中的葛兰主义者们突然爆发，独自接管了整个国家，这个说法似乎无懈可击。时至今日，土耳其政府还是没能拿出证据证明策划者在掌权之后的筹谋。政变本身像是一个小规模却多元化的联盟所为。然而毫无疑问，葛兰主义者起了很大作用。至少有一些指挥暴力的官员们是格兰系统的毕业生。两名涉案平民似乎在政变发生几天前才在美国见过葛兰。分析人士一致认为，没有领导人的批准，葛兰主义者是不可能采取行动的。葛兰否认参与此事。

Mr Erdogan and his ministers fume that foreigners do not appreciate the damage the Gulenists inflicted on Turkey. They are partly right. “In many European countries, people think that because Mr Erdogan is a dictator, anyone opposed to him must be a democrat,”says Bayram Balci, head of the French Institute of Anatolian Studies in Istanbul. That kind of logic plays into Mr Gulen’s hands and lets him masquerade as a dissident.

埃尔多安总统和他的部长们愤愤不平，因为外国人并未意识到葛兰主义者对土耳其造成的伤害。他们的想法一部分是对的。“在许多欧洲国家，人们认为，由于埃尔多安总统是独裁者，所以任何反对他的人都一定是民主人士，”伊斯坦布尔的法国安纳托利亚研究所负责人巴勒姆·巴尔奇表示。这种逻辑利于葛兰，并让他将自己伪装成持不同政见者。