2020年经济学人 查理曼专栏--针对时下土耳其局势,葛兰运动难辞其咎(3)（在线收听）

No one, however, is worse placed to preach about the dangers of Gulenism than Mr Erdogan, whose government was once joined at the hip with the movement. By locking up everyone linked to it, including lawyers, teachers and charity workers, Mr Erdogan has ditched the rule of law in favour of a vendetta. He has not helped his case by accusing nearly all of his other opponents of treason or terror. “People in America might be more receptive to Erdogan’s side of the story if he had more credibility,” says Gonul Tol of the Middle East Institute, a Washington think-tank. “But he has none.”

然而，没有人能够比埃尔多安更能去宣扬葛兰主义的危险性了，埃尔多安政府曾与葛兰运动如胶似漆。埃尔多安总统将所有与葛兰运动相关的人都羁押了起来，其中包括律师、老师和慈善工作者。他摒弃了法治，让积怨来主导自己处理这些人。他指责其他几乎所有的反对者都是叛国或恐怖分子，这对他的论据毫无帮助。“如果埃尔多安的可信度更高，美国民众可能会更容易接受他的说法。”华盛顿智库中东研究所的戈努尔·托尔说。“但他并不可信。”

Today the cemaat seems to be a spent force. Inside Turkey, it has no room to breathe. Because it alienated almost every part of Turkish society, there is no one left to defend it, aside from a handful of human- rights activists. Abroad, the Gulenists are better off, but still on the back foot. Mr Erdogan has successfully pressed a few countries in Africa and Central Asia to sever links with Gulen schools and businesses. Funding has begun to dry up. Long-standing followers are leaving in droves and new ones are almost impossible to recruit. Mr Gulen commands blind obedience. His deputies, says Mr Bacik, are all theologians with no experience outside the group. There are no women in positions of power. For a movement that portrays itself as a modernising force in Islam, this is not a good look. Mr Gulen himself is approaching 80 and in poor health. When he dies, what remains of the cemaat is likely to crumble.

今天的葛兰社群精疲力竭。在土耳其，它没有喘息的空间。因为葛兰已经疏远了几乎所有的土耳其社会群体，除了少数人权活动家，没有人能捍卫它。在国外，葛兰主义者境况较好，但仍旧处于劣势。埃尔多安总统成功向非洲和中亚的一些国家施压，迫使他们切断与葛兰学校和企业的联系。资金开始枯竭。长期的信众们大批离开，几乎不可能招募到新的追随者。葛兰命令信众们盲目服从。巴西克说，葛兰的副手们都是神学家，离开了葛兰组织，他们没有任何经验。也没有女性掌权。对于一个将自己描绘为伊斯兰运动现代化力量的运动来说，这不是一个好兆头。葛兰本人也快80了，身体也很差。当他死亡，在葛兰社群中剩下的东西很可能会崩溃。

Its legacy in Turkey has been grim. “They have as much responsibility as Erdogan for the state of the country,” says Ms Tol. Much of the outside world seems to think there is only one villain in the story of Turkey’s descent into autocracy.Turks will tell you there is room for more.

葛兰在土耳其的遗留问题严峻。托尔女士说：“葛兰主义者和埃尔多安一样，对国家的现状负有同样的责任。”。外界很多人认为，在土耳其陷入专制的故事中，只有一个反派。土耳其人会告诉你，反派有很多。