2020年经济学人 空中巨无霸A380的贬值(2)（在线收听）

Valuations of A380s have tumbled accordingly. The oldest models have been flying for 12 years or so. At that age, aircraft have typically lost half their value. Given each costs $250m to 300m to buy when kitted out, airline accountants might have hoped for $125m. But even before covid-19 appraisers suggested between $75m and $100m. Now some A380s are fetching half what they used to be worth, says Usman Ahmed of Aircore Aviation, a consultancy. The slump is borne out by the accounts of investment funds that own planes and lease them to airlines. A fund called Doric Nimrod Air One recently cut the accounting value of its sole asset, an A380 leased to Emirates, by 51% in dollar terms.

A380飞机的估值也相应下跌。最老的型号已经飞行了12年左右。这样机龄的飞机价值通常会下降一半。考虑到每架A380的购买成本在2.5亿至3亿之间，航空公司的会计师们可能希望价格会在1.25亿美元。但甚至是在新冠肺炎之前，评估师们建议价格在7500万美元至1亿美元之间。咨询公司Aircore Aviation的乌斯曼·艾哈迈德表示,现在一些A380飞机的价格已经是过去价值的一半。拥有A380飞机并租赁给航空公司的投资基金账户证明了这一点。一家名为Doric Nimrod Air One的基金最近将其唯一资产——一架租给阿联酋航空的A380飞机——的会计价值以美元的基准下调了51%。

The share prices of listed A380-owning funds suggests the residual values of the planes once the leases expire are between $10m and $15m, says Matthew Hose of Jefferies, an investment bank. Given regular maintenance overhauls of each of the A380’s four engines can cost $6m, existing motors in decent nick are, in principle, worth at least that much. Add the landing gear, also in principle reusable, and that would make the airframe itself worthless. It also signals that even the spares—which in modern planemaking are always aircraft- specific and useless for other models— may not have much value.

投资银行Jefferies的马修·霍斯表示，A380上市基金的股价表明，一旦租赁到期，飞机的剩余价值在1000万美元至1500万美元之间。考虑需要定期维护检修A380飞机的四个引擎，其中每个需要花费600万美元，原则上讲，状态不错的A380现有型号的发动机至少值这么多钱。加上起落架，原则上也是可重复使用的，这将使机身本身一文不值。这也预示着，飞机零件（在现代飞机制造中，零件通常是飞机专用，对其他型号无用）没什么价值。

Struggling operators sometimes convert unwanted passenger jets into cargo planes. But Airbus never launched a freight version of the A380, so the conversion would be tricky. No scheduled carrier that flies the aircraft already is keen on more, even at knock-down prices. The first A380 to fly, which came into service in 2007, has already been sent to the scrapheap. More are headed that way.

苦苦挣扎的运营商有时会将不需要的客机改装成货机。但空客从未推出过货运版的A380，因此改装难度很大。目前还没有一家有定期航班的航空公司热衷于购买更多的飞机，即使是在低价的情况下。2007年投入使用的第一架A380飞机已经被送去了垃圾堆。更多的A380正在走向弃用。