2020年经济学人 首尔住房(2)（在线收听）

The government's caps on mortgage availabilityhave hit first-time buyers, particularly those lookingto buy in affluent areas.

政府对获得贷款的限制打击了首次购房者，尤其是那些希望在富裕地区购房的人。

The government says it wants to help "end-users" ofapartments and punish "speculators",

政府表示希望帮助公寓“终端用户”，处罚“投机者”，

says Song In-ho of the Korea Development Institute, a think-tank. But its attempts to deterthe latter have also hurt the former.

智囊团韩国发展研究院的Song In-ho说到。但其阻止后者的努力也伤害了前者。

The discontent is exacerbated by the peculiarities of the rental market. Two-fifths of peopleliving in Seoul own their homes; the rest are tenants.

租赁市场的独特性加剧了这种不满。首尔五分之二的人拥有自己的房屋，剩下的都是租客。

Because South Koreans tend to invest the bulk of their savings in property,

因为韩国人倾向于将大部分储蓄投资于房地产，

four-fifths of landlords are other private households rather than corporations or publicinstitutions,

五分之四的房东都是其他私人户主，而不是房产公司或公共机构，

compared with nearly two-thirds in Japan and just over half in Britain.

日本的这一比例将近三分之二，应该略高于二分之一。

Roughly half of all tenancies are based on a unique system known as jeonse, or "key money".

大约有一半的租约是基于一种独特的系统，称为长期租约，或“关键钱”。

Under a jeonse contract, the tenant pays the landlord a deposit of between 60% and 80% ofthe purchase price to live rent-free for two years.

根据长期租约，租户需要房东支付购房价格60%至80%的押金，以换取两年的免租金生活。

The deposits have helped landlords finance further property purchases.

这笔押金为房东进一步购买房产提供了资金。

But they make it hard for anyone without the savings to find anywhere affordable to live, evenif they rent.

但对于没有积蓄的人来说，即使他们租房，也很难找到能负担得起的地方居住。

Seoul may seem cheaper than cities such as London or Hong Kong when prices are compared toincomes. But it is less affordable than it looks.

从房价与收入的比较来看，首尔似乎比伦敦或香港等城市要便宜。但并没有看上去的那么容易负担。

There are other strains. Household debt is high, having risen rapidly in the past.

还有其他压力。家庭债务很高，在过去增长迅速。

"The economy as a whole is far too exposed to the property market," reckons Hahm Joon-ho,

Hahm Joon-ho认为，“整体经济受房地产市场影响较大，”

a former member of the Bank of Korea's monetary-policy board now at Yonsei University inSeoul. "If prices fell suddenly, it would be very bad."

他是曾是韩国央行货币政策委员会的成员，现就职于首尔延世大学。“如果房价突然下跌，将会造成严重后果。”

In the short term, then, the government's inability to bring down prices may be no bad thing.

在短期内，政府没能力降低房价或许不是件坏事。

No one wants to see a sudden house-price crash at a time when the economy is alreadysuffering a pandemic-induced slowdown.

经济已经遭受了疫情导致的放缓，此时，没人希望看到房价突然崩溃。

The economic fallout from the virus could curtail household incomes.

疫情对经济的影响可能会缩减家庭收入。

That might delay the economic recovery as people cut back on their spending in order toservice their loans, although interest-rate cuts should provide some relief.

这可能会推迟经济复苏，因为人们会削减支出以偿还贷款，尽管减息应该会起到一定的缓解作用。

In the longer term, though, the problem of affordability will have to be dealt with.

不过，从长期来看，负担能力的问题必须得到解决。

Increasing supply is likely to be a much more promising way of bringing house prices downthan intricate policy interventions, says Mr Hahm.

相比错综复杂的政策干预手段，增加供应可能是一种更有效的降低房价的方法，Hahm说到。

There is no sign that Seoul will become less attractive as a place to live, or that prospectivehomeowners will become less exacting in their tastes.

没有迹象表明，首尔作为一个居住地的吸引力将会减弱，也没有迹象表明未来的房主将会在品味上变得不那么挑剔。

"More and more people want to live in high-quality apartments. Seoul does not have enough ofthose—and so we need to build more."

“越来越多的人想要住在高品质公寓中。首尔没有充足的高质量公寓——因此，我们需要建造更多。”