时代周刊 叙利亚已经演变为全球战场(2)（在线收听）

With 400,000 people dead, the conflict in Syria is no longer just about the future of Assad, the Syrian people or even ISIS, which has now lost most of its territory.

死亡人数高达40万，叙利亚的冲突已经不单单是关乎阿萨德，叙利亚人民乃至伊斯兰国——该国现在已经失去了大部分领土——未来的一场战争了。

Instead, it’s a series of battles for geopolitical dominance.

而是争夺地缘政治优势的一场连环战争。

The key player is Iran, which has extended its influence and reach inside Syria.

其中的关键角色是已经将自己的势力范围扩大到了叙利亚境内的伊朗。

Analysts say it now effectively holds the levers of power.

分析人士表示，伊朗已经充分占据了这场战争的优势。

“In the beginning, Iran entered Syria to support the regime of Bashar Assad,

“一开始，伊朗进入叙利亚是为了支持巴沙尔·阿萨德政权，

but Assad has ended up becoming a client of Iran,”

但阿萨德最终成了伊朗的客户，”

says Lina Khatib, head of the Middle East and North Africa Programme at Chatham House.

英国皇家国际事务研究所中东和北非项目负责人Lina Khatib表示。

“The Syrian regime has become almost hostage to Iran’s interests.”

“叙利亚政权几乎已经成了伊朗的傀儡。”

That is too much for Israel, which sees a creeping Iranian military presence on its border.

这对以色列来说实在是难以接受，因为以色列发现伊朗的军事力量已经蔓延到了自己的边境线上。

It launched a series of cross-border assaults in Syria on Feb. 10 in an overt show of force.

它于2月10日对叙利亚展开了一系列跨界袭击，公开武力示威。

Israel has carried out occasional strikes on Syrian territory since 2011,

自2011年以来，以色列就不时打击叙利亚领土，

but both sides have shied away from raising the stakes.

但双方都避免了加注。

This time, things played out differently.

这一次，情况有点不同。

Syria’s antiaircraft system hit an Israeli F-16 as it returned from a raid,

叙利亚防空系统击落了一架返航的以色列F-16战机，

sending a message: Israel will no longer have free rein of Syrian airspace.

以此释放信号：以色列不再拥有出入叙利亚领空的自由。

Others in Syria are pursuing their own agendas.

叙利亚境内的其他人也在 加紧自己的计划。

Turkey is battling the Kurdish YPG militia, which it sees as an existential threat.

土耳其正在对付库尔德YPG民兵组织，认为后者对其是一种存在性威胁。

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who once called for Assad’s ouster, now seems resigned to his staying.

曾经呼吁阿萨德下台的土耳其总统雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安现在似乎已经辞职了。

“[Turkey] has only one priority left in Syria, to fight the YPG,”

“[土耳其]在叙利亚只剩下唯一一件要紧事了，那就是对抗YPG，”

says Soner Cagaptay, director of the Turkish Research Program at the Washington Institute.

华盛顿研究所土耳其研究小组主任Soner Cagaptay说。