2020年经济学人 全球贸易—潦而不倒(2)（在线收听）

Covid-related products including computing equipment for home-working

自6月份以来，包括家用办公电脑设备在内的疫情相关产品，

has accounted for the majority of China's year-on-year export growth in each month since June.

在中国月度出口同比增长中占了大部分。

Eytan Buchman of Freightos, an online marketplace, reports that ocean-freight prices are surging for routes between America and South-East Asia,

线上市场Freightos的Eytan Buchman报告称，美洲与东南亚航线之间的海运费价格飙升，

partly because of "nearfrantic" e-commerce offerings by small businesses.

部分原因是因为小企业提供的“近乎疯狂”的电子商务服务。

Policymakers have played a pivotal role in the trade revival. Monetary and fiscal firepower was bigger and faster than trade experts had expected.

政策制定者在贸易复苏中发挥了关键作用。货币和财政的火力比贸易专家预期的更大和更快。

Central-bank liquidity measures kept trade finance flowing better than it did during the financial crisis,

央行流动性措施使贸易金融的流动性比金融危机期间的更好，

says Jennifer McKeown of Capital Economics, a research outfit.

研究机构凯投宏观的Jennifer McKeown说到。

Although the trade performance is cause for relief, no one should declare victory yet.

尽管贸易表现让人松了一口气，但还不是宣告胜利的时候。

A second wave of lockdowns, or overhasty efforts to curtail economic stimulus, could derail the recovery.

第二波封锁，或过于仓促地削减经济刺激措施，可能会破坏经济复苏。

The value of exports from South Korea dipped in August relative to July,

相较七月，韩国八月份的出口额有所下降，

as did those of China after adjusting for an artificially depressed base in 2019.

在为2019年人为压低的基数进行调整后，中国也有所下跌。

Robert Koopman, chief economist of the World Trade Organisation, which oversees global trade,

监管全球贸易的世界贸易组织的首席经济学家Robert Koopman

doubts there will be a sustained v-shaped recovery.

怀疑是否会出现持续的v型复苏。

Overlaying this is a concern about the lingering unevenness of trade.

除此之外，还有对贸易持续不平衡的担忧。

Brad Setser of the Council on Foreign Relations, an American think-tank,

美国智囊团——美国外交关系协会的Brad Setser表示，

says that the trade slump has shrunk the gap between most countries' imports and exports, reducing imbalances.

贸易下跌缩小了进出口大国之间的差距，减少了不平衡。

Yet there have been two standout exceptions.

然而，有两个明显的例外。

The first is China, whose rapid reopening has sent its exports of goods surging to a level last seen

第一个是中国，中国迅速重启使其出口商品飙升至

before the Sino-American trade war—almost $60bn higher than imports in August.

中美贸易战爆发前的水平——比八月进口高出近600亿美元。

The second is America, whose policies to stoke demand have had the side-effect of causing its trade deficit to increase further—to around $80bn in July.

第二个是美国，其刺激需求的政策产生了副作用，导致其贸易逆差进一步增加——7月份达到约800亿美元。

This imbalance is ominous. Although the so-called Phase One trade deal between America and China

这种不平衡是不祥之兆。虽然所谓的第一阶段中美贸易协定

was meant to prop up American exports to China, so far it has disappointed.

旨在支持美国对中国的出口，但到目前为止结果令人失望。

Meanwhile, President Donald Trump is haranguing China ahead of elections in November.

与此同时，唐纳德·特朗普总统正在11月的大选前大谈特谈中国。

Trade may not have performed as badly as many feared. But it still has an alarming ability to pack a Thurmanesque punch.

贸易的表现可能并不像许多人担心的那么糟糕。但它仍有惊人的能力，能够打出瑟曼式的重击。