2020年经济学人 开放不再,繁荣落幕(4)（在线收听）

The book ends on an optimistic note. Populist demagogues eventually lose power because they are hopeless at governing. Four in ten wind up being indicted for corruption, by one count. Citizens get used to change: today American Muslims are as tolerant of homosexuals as the country was overall in 2006. The open society “may yet be saved”, Mr Norberg concludes.

这本书以乐观的口吻结束。民粹主义的煽动者们最终下台，因为他们治理无能。数下来，其中有十分之四最终被指控犯有贪污罪。公民习惯了改变，今天的美国穆斯林对同性恋的宽容程度与2006年美国的总体水平一样。诺伯格总结说，开放的社会“可能会被拯救”。

Mr Yglesias makes a bold case for openness in his own country. If America made both child-rearing and immigration easier, its population could in time swell to 1bn. It would thus remain the pre-eminent power, outstripping China and India. A bigger America would make for a more innovative and democratic world, he argues.

伊格莱西亚斯大胆地提出了自己的国家实行开放的理由。如果在美国，抚养子女和移民变得更容易，那么美国人口最终可能会膨胀到10亿。这样的情况下，美国将继续保持领先地位，超越中国和印度。他认为，更庞大的美国将有助于建设一个更加创新和民主的世界。

But wouldn’t an America of 1bn people be horribly crowded? No, it would be as sparsely populated as France is now. Even popular cities could accommodate many more residents if building codes were less restrictive. Enlightened visa rules could revive declining towns. Congestion could be eased with policies that have worked elsewhere, from road pricing to better railways.

但是，拥有10亿人口的美国不会非常拥挤吗？不，那时的美国会像现在的法国一样地广人稀。如果房屋建筑规则的限制变少，那即使是热门城市也能容纳更多的居民。开明的签证规则可能会重振衰败的城镇。从公路收费到改善铁路等其他方面的政策，可能有助于缓解交通堵塞。

Mr Yglesias is swimming against the tide, and knows it. He notes that a recent immigration bill backed by Donald Trump is so restrictive that it would not let Kazuo Ishiguro, a British Nobel prizewinner, apply for a work visa unless his job paid $240,000 or more. Yet as Mr Norberg shows, political tides can change.

伊格莱西亚斯深知自己是在逆水行舟。他指出，最近一项有唐纳德·特朗普支持的移民法案限制性非常强，除非英国诺贝尔奖得主石黑一雄的工资高于或等于24万美元，否则他无法申请美国工作签证。然而，就像诺伯格显示的那样，政治潮流是可以改变的。