2020年经济学人 列克星顿专栏--美国大选的双重否定(2)（在线收听）

Polls point to a marginal softness in their support for Mr Biden relative to that enjoyed by Hillary Clinton. Where she won 88% of African-Americans, YouGov polling suggests 83% are committed to voting for Mr Biden. He will probably bridge the gap. Only 8% of black voters say they will vote for Mr Trump; many of the rest are undecided and most likely to plump for Mr Biden. Yet his advisers had been counting on Mr Biden to do better with black voters than Mrs Clinton. To win back the midwestern states she lost, let alone North Carolina, a state where a quarter of voters are black, he may need to do much better. And the polls are not the only things fuelling Democratic anxiety on this score.

民调显示，与希拉里·克林顿相比，他们对拜登的支持度略有下降。YouGov民调显示，希拉里获得88%的非裔美国人支持，而拜登的支持率为83%。他可能会弥补这一差距。只有8%的黑人选民表示会投票支持特朗普；其余选民尚未做出决定，但他们最有可能选择拜登。然而，拜登的顾问们一直指望他能比克林顿获得更多的黑人选民支持。拜登可能需要做得更好，才能赢回希拉里失去的中西部州，更不用说包含四分之一的黑人选民的北卡罗来纳州了。民调并不是唯一的因素致使民主党对黑人选民问题的焦虑加剧。

Another is the flipside of Mr Trump’s negative appeal. The president’s offensiveness to black voters, combined with Mr Biden’s own limitations as a campaigner, have made it hard for the challenger to make a positive case for himself. “He’s got a good heart, he’s one of us,” was the most the voters in and around Greenville said for Mr Biden. This might suggest his support among African- Americans is wider than it is deep. Which in turn could suggest it will not take much to stop them turning out in the numbers he needs. And covid-19 is a lot. Alongside their loathing for the president, almost all the North Carolinians appeared terrified of the virus, which has hit black America disproportionately hard. Most spoke to the canvassers from behind a screen or a front door held slightly ajar. “I’m sorry, baby,” said Ms Ellis, of Greenville Heights, to explain why she would not step outside. “We’re scared.”

另一个因素是特朗普的负面吸引力的对立面。总统对黑人选民的攻击，再加上拜登自身作为竞选者的局限性，使得这位挑战者很难获得黑人选民更积极的支持。“他有一颗善良的心，他是我们中的一员，”这是格林维尔及周边的选民对拜登说的最多的话。这可能意味着非裔美国人对他的支持是广泛而非深度的。反过来也可能意味着不需要太多时间就能阻止拜登获得需要的选票数。而且新冠肺炎肆虐。除了对总统的厌恶以外，似乎几乎所有的北卡罗来纳人都对这种病毒感到恐惧，新冠肺炎使美国黑人遭到重创。大多数人会在屏风后面或前门微微半开着的地方与调查者交谈。格林维尔高地的埃利斯女士说，“我很抱歉，亲爱的，”她还解释了自己不出去的原因，“我们很害怕。”