2020年经济学人 列克星顿专栏--美国大选的双重否定(3)（在线收听）

These are valid concerns, which will not be fully allayed until the returns are in. (Representative G.K. Butterfield, whose congressional district includes Greenville, said his biggest fear was of a covid-19 surge a week before the election.) Yet Lexington’s day on the trail suggested the Democrats may be worrying a bit too much.

这些都是合理的担忧，而且在疫情恢复之前，这样的担忧不会完全消除。（格林维尔选举区的众议员巴特菲尔德说，他最担心的是在大选前一周出现新冠肺炎激增。）然而笔者一天的行程表明，民主党人可能过虑了。

Voting for the least bad option is not a novelty to black voters. The exuberance of their support for Barack Obama (“The most beautiful thing I’ve ever seen,” recalled Ms Perkins) was an anomaly. They generally take a starkly pragmatic view of politics. For many black voters, elections represent more a source of protection than a promise of future perfection. Their dogged support for the often-disappointing Democrats illustrates that. Republicans tend to ascribe it to leftist identity politics; it is more a defensive measure against a majority-white party that has often sought to repress their voting rights. Mr Trump, who this week randomly accused his opponents of wanting to build “projects” in the leafy suburbs, has hardened that suspicion, and thereby drawn a predictable African-American response. Asked what would get her neighbours to the polls in numbers, Ms Perkins replied: “Fear. Fear of covid. Fear of losing your job and house. Fear of being shot while watching TV in your house.” As an indicator of likely black turnout, enthusiasm for the candidate may be overrated.

对于黑人选民来说，投票给不是最差的选择并非新鲜事。他们对奥巴马的大力支持是一种反常现象。（“我见过最美好的事情，”珀金斯回忆道）。他们通常对政治持有非常务实的观点。对许多黑人选民来说，选举更多代表着一种保护，而不是对完美的未来的承诺。他们对那些往往会令人失望的民主党人的支持说明了这一点。共和党人倾向于将这种现象归因于他们对左派的政治认同；这更像是一种针对多数白人政党的防御措施，白人政党常常试图压制黑人选民的投票权。特朗普本周随意指责他的对手希望在绿树成荫的郊区建设“项目”，他将这种怀疑深入人心，并因此引发了可以预见的非裔美国人的反应。在问及是什么导致帕金斯的邻居们参与民调时，帕金斯回答道：“是因为害怕。害怕新冠肺炎。害怕失去工作和房屋。害怕在家看电视时遭到枪杀。”黑人选民对候选人的热情是投票率的一个指标，但是他们的热情可能被高估了。

Without underestimating the covid-related uncertainties, there are also indicators that the virus could have less of a dampening effect than nervous Democrats fear. Projections from the latest survey data suggest black turnout is on course to be nine points higher than it was in 2016. All the voters canvassed insisted they would not allow the virus to stop them voting. Most said it had made them more determined to vote, and that they had already made plans to protect themselves, by voting early by mail or in person. Polls suggested black voters are 25% more likely to vote early than they were in 2016. That could make it harder to suppress their votes. “I’m voting,” said Ethel Peele, on her doorstep in Williamston. “Even if I have to get me a cab, I’m voting.”

就算没有低估新冠肺炎引发的不确定情况，也有迹象表明，病毒虽然会对黑人选民投票产生抑制影响，但并没有紧张的民主党人担心的那么严重。最新调查数据的预测显示，黑人投票率将比2016年提高9个百分点。所有被拉票的选民都坚称，他们不会让病毒阻止他们投票。大多数选民都表示，病毒让他们更加坚定地投票，他们已经制定了保护自己的计划，通过提前邮寄选票或亲自投票。民调显示，黑人选民提前投票的可能性比2016年高出25%。这可能会很难压制黑人选民们的投票现象。“我要投票，”埃塞尔·皮尔在威廉斯顿的家门口说。“即使我得叫辆出租车，我也要投票。”

African-American voters are facing even more formidable obstacles than usual this year. Yet they are formidable voters. Most of the evidence suggests Mr Biden can count on them.

今年，非洲裔美国选民面临着比以往更为艰巨的障碍。然而，他们是强大的选民。大多数证据表明，拜登可以指望他们。