2020年经济学人 美国经济强势回升(1)（在线收听）

America's economy

美国经济

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强势回升

Why the world's largest economy is beating forecasts?

世界第一大经济体为何远超预期？

"When Americans vote in November, unemployment will be below 6%," declared Lars Christensen, a maverick economist, in May. Given that lockdowns had sent the unemployment rate soaring to 14.7% only the month before, it was a bold prediction. In June at least 14 of the Federal Reserve's 17 interest-rate-setters forecast that quarterly unemployment at the end of the year would still be above 9%. Most other prognosticators were equally gloomy. They expected American GDP to collapse in 2020 and recover relatively slowly. Mr Christensen insisted that natural disasters, unlike financial crashes and recessions brought on by economic policy mistakes, are typically followed by rapid recoveries.

克里斯坦森(Lars Christensen)是一位特立独行的经济学家，他于5月称“待11月美国大选投票之时美国的失业率将降至6%”。该预测十分大胆，因为就在一个月前，封锁已经致使美国的失业率上升至14.7%。而在6月，17位美联储利率制定者中有至少14位预测今年年底的季度失业率仍将高于9%。大多预测者都持悲观态度，他们预计美国的GDP将在2020年崩盘且回升的速度会相对缓慢。然而，克里斯坦森却坚持认为天灾不同于由人为政策失误导致的金融危机和经济衰退，因为前者过后的经济回温往往较为迅速。

He may be proven right. Over the summer the unemployment rate fell fast, to 8.4% in August. And economists have scrambled to upgrade their growth forecasts (see chart). On September 16th the oecd, a rich-country think-tank, predicted that the American economy would shrink by 3.8% this year, rather than the 7.3% expected in June. The outlook was upgraded across the rich world, but nowhere by as much. America still faces a recession about half as deep again as the one it endured after the financial crisis. But expectations are not as apocalyptic as they were—and look better than they do in most of Europe.

事实证明他可能是对的。失业率在整个夏季持续走低，到8月已降至8.4%，经济学家们开始手忙脚乱地变更自己的增长预测。9月16日，某发达国家智囊团预测美国经济今年将萎缩3.8%，远低于其6月预测的数字7.3%。虽说所有发达国家的经济前景都得到了提升，但没有谁能比得过美国。美国的经济衰退虽尚未痊愈，杀伤力却已低至金融危机后的一半。此外，人们的预测也较之前更为乐观，甚至超过了对多数欧洲国家的预测。

The upgrades in America can be attributed to three factors. First, the spread of the coronavirus in the southern "sunbelt states", which rode a wave of the epidemic in the summer, has slowed. Second, America's economic stimulus, the world's largest both in absolute terms and as a proportion of GDP, has been potent. Thanks to onetime stimulus cheques worth up to $1,200 per person and an extra $600 a week in unemployment-insurance (ui) payments, households' disposable income has risen since the pandemic began. Americans did not spend the money all at once, meaning that it continues to support consumption today, even though most of the emergency support has expired. In early September ui recipients were still spending more than they did before the pandemic hit.

美国经济预期的提升归结于三大因素。首先，美国南部的“阳光州”曾在夏季遭遇一波新冠重创，而如今新冠传播的速度在该地区已经放缓。其次，美国的经济刺激无论按照绝对数量还是按占国内生产总值(GDP)的比例来计算都是世界上最强的。美国的刺激支票曾一度高达每人1200美元，外加每周额外600美元的失业保险，这使得美国家庭的可支配收入自新冠开始以来持续增长。况且，美国人并没有一下子把钱花光，这意味着即使大部分的紧急援助已经到期，这笔钱仍可继续支持消费。直至9月初，养老金领取者的支出仍高于疫情爆发之前。