2020年经济学人 美国经济强势回升(2)（在线收听）

The final reason behind the forecast revisions is probably America's flexible labour market. The fall in unemployment in recent months seems to reflect more new jobs, rather than discouraged workers exiting the workforce. In Europe governments have tended to assume much of the payroll cost for furloughed workers. Such schemes are handy in a tight spot. But if prolonged, they could keep workers in jobs that are never coming back. America, by contrast, has mainly protected people's incomes with unemployment benefits (although it has absorbed the payroll costs of many small businesses via loans that may eventually be forgiven). As a result the reallocation of labour from dying industries to up-and-coming ones is happening at speed. For example, the number of travel agents has fallen by 10% since April, even as overall employment has risen. Employment in general-merchandise shops is 6% higher than before the pandemic.

预期提升的最后一大因素大概是美国灵活的劳动力市场。从近几个月失业率的下降来看，美国工人并没有沮丧地退出劳动力市场，而是获得了更多新的就业机会。欧洲国家更愿承担休假工人的大部分工资，该方案用在困境中很是顺手，但长期下去反而不利，它虽保住了工人的工资，却将工人困在了永远无法恢复的工作岗位上。相比之下，美国主要通过失业救济来保护人们的收入（尽管它通过最终可能会被免除的贷款吸收了许多小企业的工资成本。）其结果是，劳动力正迅速从垂死的行业被重新分配到新兴行业。比如，4月以来虽然整体就业率有所上升，但旅行社相关就业率下降了10%。，而百货店的就业率却比新冠爆发前增长了6%。

Much could still go wrong. The virus could surge again, as it has in Europe. Many forecasters continue to assume, optimistically, that Congress will pass another stimulus package this year. Americans cannot run down their savings forever. And socialdistancing requirements remain in place in much of the country. As a result some labour-market indicators still look dire. In August, even as the overall unemployment rate fell, roughly 3.4m jobs were permanently culled, more than in October 2008, soon after Lehman Brothers collapsed. The rapid rebound this time could yet hit a hard ceiling. But Mr Christensen's optimism no longer looks so exceptional.

美国经济还有可能再出问题，新冠感染人数可能会像欧洲那样再次激增。不过许多预测者仍持乐观态度，认为国会今年将通过另一项经济刺激计划。美国人不可能一直吃老底儿。至今美国大部分地区仍要求保持安全距离，其结果是某些劳动力市场的糟糕指标不会有所改观。尽管8月份的总体失业率有所下降，但仍有约340万个工作岗位遭遇永久性裁员，该数字比雷曼兄弟(Lehman Brothers)破产后不久的2008年10月的数字还要高。这次的快速反弹仍有可能触及硬顶，但至少克里斯坦森先生的乐观态度看上去不再那么突兀。