时代周刊:威慑之争(1)（在线收听）

THE DETERRENCE DEBATE

威慑之争

By James Stavridis

文/詹姆斯·斯塔夫里蒂斯

President Trump and Kim Jong Un’s courtship has been nothing if not fickle.

特朗普总统和金正恩的关系一直反复无常。

And so as the summit over North Korea’s nuclear weapons veers from on-again to off-again,

因此，既然有关朝鲜核武器的峰会时断时续，

the world should consider the thinking of three distinguished U.S. military officers—

国际社会就应该分析分析美国三大军官的思维方式——

two of whom just took pivotal posts in these turbulent times.

其中两人都是刚刚在整个风云变幻的时代接任了关键职位。

I know each of them very well from our decades of service and my time in the Pacific Fleet and as NATO Supreme Commander:

因为我们四人都服役了数十年，加上我还在太平洋舰队服役过，还担任过北约最高指挥官，我对他们三人都有颇深的了解：

General James Mattis, the Secretary of Defense;

国防部长詹姆斯·马蒂斯将军；

Admiral Harry Harris, who was officially nominated for U.S. ambassador to South Korea the day before Trump withdrew from the summit with Kim;

川普退出与金正恩的峰会前一天正式提名的美国驻韩大使，海军上将哈里·哈里斯；

and Admiral Phil Davidson, Harris’ new successor as commander of the vast U.S. Pacific Command.

以及接任哈里斯美国太平洋司令部司令的海军上将菲尔·戴维森。

Together, they own the problem of determining how to return the U.S. to full-bore deterrence—

他们三人共同承担着决定如何让美国恢复全方位威慑力的责任——

and giving the President new options for military strikes if the negotiations fail.

还有谈判失败后为总统提供军事打击新选项的责任。

What will their counsel be to the mercurial President?

他们会对特朗普这位善变的总统做出怎样的建议呢？

Let’s start with Mattis.

我们先来分析马蒂斯会给出怎样的建议。

The decision about what actions the U.S. should take will likely play out in a three-way conversation among him, National Security Adviser John Bolton and the President.

美国应该采取何种行动的决策可能要经由马蒂斯，国家安全顾问约翰·博尔顿和总统的三方会谈诞生。

Mattis is a thoughtful strategist with a deep sense of history—essentially the opposite of Trump.

马蒂斯是一位深思熟虑的战略家，对历史有着很深的了解——基本和特朗普是完全不同的两个人。

The President will continue to largely shoot from the hip:

总统很大程度上可能都会选择继续不假思索鲁莽行事：

he’ll ignore both the briefings and intelligence presented to him, and will remain inclined to swing for the fences,

无论是递交给他的简报还是情报他都将选择视而不见，并一如既往地倾向于孤注一掷，

if not in a summit, then in some kind of preemptive strike.

届时如果不是在峰会上，那就是某个先发制人的场合。

Mattis will face the challenge of counseling patience, while offering options for sanctions (again);

马蒂斯将面临一边耐心提供咨询，一边提供制裁（再次）；

cyber, intelligence and missile defense; perhaps a naval blockade; and even both limited and massive strikes.

网络防御、情报防御和导弹防御；或许还有海上封锁；甚至是有限打击和大规模打击等选项的挑战。

Harris, a Japanese American, will be parachuting into high drama.

哈里斯，日裔美国人，则会空投充满戏剧性的建议。

South Korean President Moon Jae-in, who had invested excessively in relationship-building with Kim,

为与金正恩修好不计代价的韩国总统文在寅

will be anxious to heal the wounds inflicted by Trump’s calling off the talks.

则会迫不及待地想愈合特朗普叫停会谈造成的创伤。

Harris understands why.

对此，哈里斯堪称是心如明镜。

He knows the Korean War plans better than anyone and grasps exactly how devastating a war on the Korean Peninsula would be.

他比任何人都更了解朝鲜战争的计划，也更清楚朝鲜半岛的战争会造成怎样的灾难。

He and his wife Bruni will also be located at ground zero.

届时，他和妻子布鲁尼都将成为直接的攻击目标。