时代周刊:威慑之争(2)（在线收听）

The newest member of the senior decision-making group is Admiral Phil Davidson,

最晚加入该高级决策小组的是海军上将菲尔·戴维森，

who is responsible for the entire military structure in the Pacific and a headquarters in Pearl Harbor.

他负责美国在整个太平洋的军事架构及珍珠港的一个海军总部。

He arrives from a strictly Navy job in command of the overall U.S. fleet.

加入该小组前，他是负责指挥整个美国舰队的海军司令。

However, he is a creative thinker, with deep intellectual capability.

然而，他也是一位具有创造性思维且足智多谋的司令。

He was hand-selected when he was a one-star to build a new diplomatic operational structure for Afghanistan and Pakistan—

当他还是一星将军时，就被总统亲自挑选去为阿富汗和巴基斯坦建设新型外交组织结构——

an unusual assignment for a Navy admiral, and one so complex, it would have led many to quit.

这一任务很少交由海军上将，因为任务过于复杂，即便交给他们，很多人也都会半途而废。

Davidson is close to Harris.

戴维森和哈里斯关系密切。

Both admirals will be very skeptical of jumping into a war with North Korea,

两位海军上将都将对与朝鲜开战，

or even a limited strike (the so-called bloody-nose option).

甚至是对朝鲜进行有限打击(所谓的“流鼻血”作战)持怀疑态度。

They will support Mattis’ caution.

他们都会支持马蒂斯的谨慎。

While each of these senior leaders will be part of the ultimate conversation in the Situation Room,

尽管三位高级领导都将参与战情室的终极对话，

the command relationships are complicated.

但三人的指挥关系错综复杂。

Harris technically reports directly to the President,

严格来讲，哈里斯应直接听命于总统，

but in reality communicates through Secretary of State Mike Pompeo (another key player, who will likely take a moderate position).

实际上却要通过国务卿迈克·蓬佩奥(另一位关键人物，这位届时可能采取温和立场)与总统沟通。

Davidson technically reports directly to the Secretary of Defense,

戴维森应直接听命于国防部长，

but in reality coordinates and communicates largely through the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

实际主要跟参谋长联席会议主席协调对接。

IN THE END, though, all of the caution from the military will go through Bolton, who reports only to the President.

不过，军方所有的谨慎之举最终都要过博尔顿这关，而博尔顿只听命于总统。

This will create tension.

这一复杂的指挥关系势必会制造紧张的气氛。

It is Bolton’s job to present these views to Trump with honesty.

因为诚实地向特朗普转述三人的观点是博尔顿的本职工作。

But it is Bolton’s nature to inject his strong and decisive personality into the debate,

但从博尔顿的秉性来看，他会做出与他坚强果断的个性一致的反应，

and he is unlikely to come down on the side of the angels in finding a diplomatic solution.

不太可能与三位天使站到一边，寻求外交途径解决问题。

Everything we know about Bolton would tell us that he will pursue the hard-power answer.

凭借我们对博尔顿的深刻了解，届时他一定会诉诸“硬实力”。

He lives in a zero-sum world, in which danger lurks in every dimension;

他奉行的是零和博弈的准则，在他的世界里，危险无处不在；

this causes him to overcompensate on the side of military force. (There are times when that makes sense. This is not one.)

导致他经常在军事方面矫枉过正。(有时他这样做也讲得通。但这次情形不同。)

Because of this organizational structure, paired with this personal tendency,

因为这种组织结构，加上博尔顿的这种个人倾向，

the chance of combat ultimately rises—despite these officers’ likely counsel against it.

爆发战争的可能性最终还是增加了——尽管那些军官可能建议避免引发战争。

Hopefully, America can find its way toward a diplomatic course, nonetheless.

不过，美国还是有希望通过外交途径解决问题。

But these officers will need to help develop a nuanced negotiating stance in order to land this crisis without a fight.

只不过，这些官员需要帮助制定细致入微的谈判立场，以便不战而解决这场危机。