纽约时报 环保署对空气污染所持态度过于乐观(1)（在线收听）

EPA's Reckoning Is a Rosier View of Air Pollution

环保署评估空气污染时，所持态度过于乐观

By Lisa Friedman

文/丽莎·弗里德曼

WASHINGTON — The Environmental Protection Agency plans to change the way it calculates the health risks of air pollution,

华盛顿电——环保署计划改变计算空气污染带来的健康风险的方式，

a shift that would make it easier to roll back a key climate change rule because it would result in far fewer predicted deaths from pollution,

这一转变会导致污染致死的预测数据变得小得多，压低这一关键的气候变化规则也会变得更加容易，

according to five people with knowledge of the agency’s plans.

据了解环保署这批计划的五名人士透露。

The E.P.A. had originally forecast that eliminating the Obama-era rule, the Clean Power Plan,

环保署原先就预测过，取消奥巴马的政策，即取消“清洁能源计划”，

and replacing it with a new measure would have resulted in an additional 1,400 premature deaths per year.

继而代之以新的措施，过早死亡的年均数据可能还要多出1400例。

The new analytical model would significantly reduce that number

采用了新的分析模型，这一数据便会锐减，

and would most likely be used by the Trump administration to defend further rollbacks of air pollution rules if it is formally adopted.

而且，如果这一模型被正式采纳，特朗普政府极有可能会用它来为进一步降低空气污染规定辩护。

The proposed shift is the latest example of the Trump administration downgrading the estimates of environmental harm from pollution in regulations.

特朗普政府正在下调有关规定中对污染造成的环境损害的评估，这次拟议的调整可以说就是最新的例子。

In this case, the proposed methodology would assume there is little or no health benefit to making the air any cleaner than what the law requires.

这次提议的方法认为，让空气质量高出法律要求的水平对人们的健康几乎没有任何助益。

Many experts said that approach was not scientifically sound

许多专家都表示，从科学的角度来讲，这种方法并不可靠，

and that, in the real world, there are no safe levels of the fine particulate pollution associated with the burning of fossil fuels.

而且，在现实中，化石燃料燃烧产生的细颗粒物污染也不存在什么安全水平。

Fine particulate matter — the tiny, deadly particles that can penetrate deep into the lungs and enter the bloodstream —

细微颗粒——也即那些能够深入肺部并进入血液，微小但致命的颗粒——

is linked to heart attacks, strokes and respiratory disease.

与心脏病、中风和呼吸系统疾病等多种疾病都有关。

The five people familiar with the plan, all current or former E.P.A. officials, said the new modeling method

熟悉该计划的那五名人士都是环保署现任或前任官员，

would appear in the agency’s analysis of the final version of the replacement regulation, known as the Affordable Clean Energy rule, which is expected to be made public in June.

他们称，新的建模方法将出现在环保署对预计将于今年6月公布的替代法规，即“平价清洁能源规定”，最终版本的分析里。

Asked on Monday whether the new method would be included in the agency’s final analysis of the rule,

周一被问及新方法是否会被纳入该机构对该规定的最终分析时，

William L. Wehrum, the E.P.A. air quality chief, said

环保局空气质量部主管威廉·韦鲁姆只说，

only that the final version would include multiple analytical approaches in an effort to be transparent.

最终版本将包括多种分析方法，力求透明。

He said the agency had made no formal change to its methodology.

他说，该机构还没有对其评估方法作出正式改变。

“It’s a very important issue, and it’s an issue where there has been a lot of debate over what the right approach is,” Mr. Wehrum said.

“这是一个非常重要的问题，在这个问题上，究竟什么才是正确的方法出现了很多争论，”韦鲁姆说道。

The E.P.A., when making major regulatory changes,

在对规章制度进行重大改革时，

is normally expected to demonstrate that society will see more benefits than costs from the change.

人们通常都期望环保署能证明，大家能从变革中看到更多的利益而不是更多的成本。

Experts said that, while benefits would appear on paper in this case,

专家们表示，虽然书面上会出现变革的各种好处，

the change actually disregards potential dangers to public health.

但这一改变实际上是忽视了它对公共健康的潜在威胁。