国家地理:为了结束这场流行病 我们必须相信科学(2)（在线收听）

Which was it, then? Surface transmission or aerosols? Should we be more afraid of contaminated elevator buttons or people breathing near us? Did scientists even know?

那么何者为真？是接触传播还是气溶胶传播？是受污染的电梯按钮或是在身旁呼吸的人更令人担心？科学家真的知道吗？

The shift in advice about masks spooked me, I must admit. Not because of the new advice itself -- I was more than happy to wear a mask if the experts said I should -- but because of the ominous meta message I sensed beneath it: Scientists were figuring this thing out on the fly. The most earnest pronouncements from the world's smartest experts suddenly sounded like little more than well-meant educated guesses.

我必须承认，关于口罩的建议大转弯令我焦虑不安。不是因为这个建议本身，假如专家说要戴口罩，我很乐意这么做，而是因为我感觉到它背后预兆的元信息：科学家是在摸索中得出这个结果的。世界上最聪明的专家用最认真的态度做出的宣告，顿时听起来不过是出于好意的合理猜测。

As this devastating year draws to its raggedy close, it's worth taking a moment to wonder what the long-term effect will be of watching scientists bob and weave on their way to a better understanding of the coronavirus and how to thwart the disease it causes, COVID-19 -- all out in public and all at breakneck speed. Even for a science geek like me, it has been unsettling to watch them debate, disagree, pivot, and reassess. I've been wishing instead that some lab-coated hero would just swoop in and make it go away. I was a baby in 1955 when Jonas Salk introduced his polio vaccine and vanquished a dread disease; ever after, my mother spoke his name with reverence.

随着这灾难的一年进入残破不堪的尾声，现在值得花些时间思考，科学家为了更了解新冠病毒和阻止它所引发的COVID-19，一路上以惊险的速度左闪右躲穿梭前行，这一切看在公众眼中会有什么长期影响。即使像我这种科学宅，看见科学家相互争论、意见不合、改变立场与重新评估，也会感到不安。我宁愿有个穿着实验衣的英雄突然现身终结疫情。1955年我还在襁褓中时，乔纳斯·沙克就是这样推出他研发的小儿麻痹症疫苗，消灭了这可怕的疾病；此后，我母亲提到他的名字时总是无比崇敬。

As scientists hustle to deliver us from a terrifying, seemingly intractable plague, there could be another happy ending -- one that involves not just survival but also wisdom. If we learn any big takeaway from this doleful experience, I hope it's not that our fellow human beings are myopic fools but that the scientific process can be trusted to get us through an existential crisis.

随着科学家拼命努力把我们从恐怖又棘手的疫情中拯救出来，还是有可能再一次出现好结局：在这个结局中，我们不仅能够存活，可能还多了智慧。如果我们能从这个悲惨的经验中学到任何重要的事，我希望是科学过程值得我们信赖，能带我们度过生存危机。