时代周刊:国际社会刚准备好直面气候问题 2020就来了(4)（在线收听）

A 2019 analysis in the journal Nature identified nine tipping points—

《自然》杂志2019年的一项分析得出了9个地球似乎已经濒临的引爆点——

from the collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet to the thawing of Arctic permafrost—that the planet appears close to reaching,

从南极西部冰盖的崩塌到北极永久冻土的融化——

any one of which might very well be triggered if warming exceeds 1.5°C.

如果变暖幅度超过1.5°C，其中的任何一个引爆点都可能被触发。

"Going beyond 2°C is a very critical step," says Johan Rockstrom,

“迈过2°C这一门槛将是非常关键的一步，”

director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research,

波茨坦气候影响研究所所长约恩·罗克斯托姆说道，

"not only in terms of economic and human impact but also in terms of the stability of the earth."

“不仅从气候变化对经济和人类的影响的角度来看是这样，从整个地球的稳定性来看也是如此。”

To keep temperatures from rising past the 1.5°C goal,

联合国环境规划署的一份报告显示，

we would need to cut global greenhouse-gas emissions 7.6% every year for the next decade,

为防止气温上升超过1.5°C，

according to a report from the U.N. Environment Programme (UNEP).

我们需要将接下来十年的每一年的全球温室气体排放量都减少7.6%。

That’s about the level the COVID-19 pandemic will reduce emissions this year,

大致相当于今年的新冠疫情减少的排放量，

but virtually no one thinks a deadly pandemic and accompanying unemployment is a sustainable way to halt climate change—

问题是，鲜有人认为致命流行病及随之而来的失业能够可持续地阻止气候变化——

and recessions are typically followed by sharp rebounds in emissions.

不仅如此，经济衰退之后通常都会出现排放量的大幅反弹。

To achieve the 1.5°C goal without creating mass disruption has always meant thoughtfully restructuring the global economy,

既要实现将气候变暖控制在1.5°C以内的目标，又要不引起大规模的破坏，一般就意味着要对全球经济进行精心的结构调整，

moving it away from fossil fuel extraction slowly but surely.

一步一个脚印地摆脱对化石燃料开采的依赖。

Scientists and economists agree this is the last opportunity we have to do so.

科学家和经济学家一致都认为，我们已经没有更多的机会。

"If we delay further than 2020," says Rockstrom,

“如果我们推迟到2020年以后，”罗克斯托姆说，

"there’s absolutely no empirical evidence that it can be done in an orderly way."

“我们没有任何的经验表明我们还能有序地完成这项工作。”

As of late June, countries had spent some $11 trillion on measures to halt the pandemic and stem its economic impact, according to the IMF.

IMF数据显示，截至6月下旬，各国在遏制疫情及其带来的经济影响方面的投资已经高达近11万亿美元。

Economists say that’s not enough, and countries and central banks plan to keep doling out money to help the global economy stay afloat.

经济学家表示，这还不够，各国及中央银行计划继续发放资金，帮助全球经济维持运转。

There are lots of things we could be buying with that money that would make our lives better and protect us from climate disaster.

我们原本可以用这笔钱买很多东西，让我们的生活变得更好，保护我们免受气候灾难的影响。

In recent months, leading institutions across the spectrum have offered approaches

近几个月来，各行各业的龙头机构都提出了一些建议，

that are varied in their specifics but generally similar in philosophy: invest in greener infrastructure.

尽管细节各有差异，理念却是大体相似的：投资更环保的基础设施。

The International Energy Agency (IEA), for example, calls for an annual $1 trillion investment in clean energy for the next three years.

比如，国际能源署(IEA)呼吁未来三年内每年在清洁能源方面投资1万亿美元。

At a cost of about 0.7% of global GDP,

这一数额约占全球GDP的0.7%，

this would represent a small portion of the funds spent to combat COVID-19 but could be transformative.

跟抗击新冠肺炎的投入比起来不过是九牛一毛，但就算是这么一笔小小的资金也能产生变革性的影响。

Expansion and modernization of electric grids would allow for easier flow of renewable energy.

随着电网的扩张和现代化，未来的可再生能源会变得更容易获取、输送。

Governments could buy out gas-guzzling vehicles, pushing consumers to go electric.

政府可以买断耗油车辆，推动消费者向电动汽车消费转型。

Homes and buildings could be retrofitted to consume less energy.

住宅等建筑可通过翻新的方式减少能耗。