2021年经济学人 一年要闻 新冠肺炎波及全球 石油市场遭受重创 各国出招挽救经济（在线收听）

The world this year

本年全球要闻回顾

By late January cases were widely reported in Germany, Japan, Taiwan and Vietnam. Markets were rattled, fearing disruption to global supply chains that run through China. By late February the World Health Organisation said that most infections were occurring outside China. Italy was the first country to be hit hard. After hospitals were overwhelmed, the country went into lockdown in early March.

截至1月底，德国、日本、中国台湾和越南都出现了大量的病例报告。市场对此感到不安，担心贯穿中国的全球供应链会受到干扰。截至2月底，世界卫生组织表示，大多数感染发生在中国境外。意大利是第一个遭受重创的国家。在医院人满为患后，该国于3月初进入封锁状态。

The sudden imposition of lockdowns led to panic buying in some places, notably in America and Britain, where supermarket shelves were stripped bare. Shopping moved online. Internet searches rocketed for goods such as toilet paper, fitness equipment and breadmakers. In poorer countries, such as India, the human cost was higher. Left suddenly without work, many migrant labourers tried to return to their family homes; it was the country’s greatest movement of people since partition in 1947. India’s economy shrank by around 25% in April-June.

突然强制实施的封锁导致了一些地方的恐慌性抢购，尤其是在美国和英国，超市的货架被洗劫一空。人们开始转战网上购物了。网购方面对卫生纸、健身设备和面包机等商品的搜索量飙升。在印度等较贫穷的国家，人力成本更高。由于突然失去工作，许多民工试图返乡；这是该国自1947年分治以来最大规模的人口流动现象。印度经济在4月至6月萎缩了约25%。

By late March China was recording fewer domestic cases. The lockdown in Wuhan ended in early April. China closed its border to foreigners as the disease spread rapidly in Europe, most menacingly in Britain, France, Italy and Spain.

到3月底，中国国内记录的病例越来越少。武汉市的封锁于4月初结束。随着疫情在欧洲迅速蔓延，尤其是疫情严重的英国、法国、意大利和西班牙，中国对外国人关闭了边境。

Don’t stand so close to me

不要靠近我

America was hit almost as hard by the coronavirus. Donald Trump didn’t take it seriously at first; he tried to lift federal restrictions in April, promising a return to normality by Easter. Wearing a face mask became a badge of political allegiance. Mr Trump rowed with the who, accusing it of being in China’s pocket, and said that America would leave it in 2021. Brazil was also led by a sceptic. Jair Bolsonaro said the disease was just a case of the “sniffles”.

美国也受到了新冠疫情的重创。特朗普一开始并没有严肃对待；4月份，他试图解除联邦政府的限制措施，并承诺在复活节前恢复正常。戴口罩成了一种政治忠诚的象征。特朗普与世界卫生组织发生争执，指责世界卫生组织“以中国为中心”，并表示美国将在2021年离开世界卫生组织。巴西也受到怀疑论者的煽动。雅伊尔·博尔索纳罗表示，该疾病只是普通的“流鼻涕”病例。

The extent of the market crash in mid-March (the s&p 500 lost a quarter of its value over three weeks) sparked fears of a depression. The Federal Reserve and other central banks made emergency cuts to interest rates. The Fed also propped up the corporate-bond market, action it had shied away from during the financial crisis a decade earlier.

3月中旬市场崩溃的程度(标准普尔500指数在三周内下跌了四分之一)引发了人们对经济萧条的担忧。美联储和其他中央银行紧急下调了利率。美联储还提振了企业债券市场，十年前金融危机期间美联储一直回避这一举措。

Oil markets took a hammering. As if the pandemic were not enough of a problem, in March Saudi Arabia instigated a price war with Russia, as their deal over production levels broke down. Prices plunged in the steepest one-day decline since 1991. They eventually recovered somewhat. By the end of the year opec and Russia had struck a tentative agreement to increase supply.

石油市场遭受重创。似乎是疫情的程度还不够严重，今年3月，随着两国就产量水平达成的协议破裂，沙特挑起了与俄罗斯的价格战。这是自1991年以来最大的单日跌幅。最终，两国的关系有所缓和。到今年年底，欧佩克和俄罗斯达成了一项增加供应的临时协议。

Politicians in many countries pulled out their fiscal bazookas to defend their economies. America’s Congress passed a $2.2trn stimulus bill (the cares act), which directed cash payments to households and topped up unemployment benefits. Some 21m people lost their jobs in April alone; unemployment soared to 14.7%, but it never hit the 20% that some had forecast. Britain guaranteed 80% of wages to workers who had been furloughed, and even subsidised restaurant meals in August.

许多国家的政治家拿出财政火箭筒来保卫经济。美国国会通过了一项2.2万亿美元的刺激法案(《关爱法案》)，该法案直接向家庭支付现金，并增加了失业救济金。仅在4月份就有2100万人失业；失业率飙升至14.7%，但并未达到一些人预测的20%。英国保证了休假工人80%的工资，甚至在8月份对各餐馆进行了补贴。