时代周刊:拜登系伊朗唯一希望(2)（在线收听）

But Iran also got some much needed good news when Joe Biden won the presidential election. Now there is reason for hope among those in Iran who desperately want the U.S. to return to the nuclear deal—and the economic relief it might bring if sanctions are eased. With a presidential election in Iran next year, and Iran's hard-liners working to undermine President Hassan Rouhani, Iran's negotiators won't want to look weak at the table. But Rouhani knows that Biden's top diplomat, Tony Blinken, and National Security Adviser, Jake Sullivan, are veterans of the Obama Administration negotiations that made the original deal in 2015.

不过，在乔·拜登赢得总统大选之时，伊朗也得到了一些急需的好消息。如今，那些迫切希望美国重返核协议的伊朗人又有了希望——如果制裁放松，经济可能获得喘气之机。伊朗明年将进行总统选举，强硬派正极力削弱总统哈桑·鲁哈尼，伊朗的谈判代表不希望在谈判桌上显得软弱。但鲁哈尼知道，拜登的首席外交官托尼·布林肯和国家安全顾问杰克·沙利文都是奥巴马政府谈判的老手，他们在2015年达成了最初的协议。

THIS TIMING HELPS explain why Israel might have moved to kill the nuclear scientist now. Donald Trump is still President. Any displeasure from the incoming Biden team can be managed, and at the very least, Iran's nuclear program has likely been set back once again. (Israel has been blamed for killing Iranian scientists in the past, though none of Fakhrizadeh's stature.) Perhaps Israel is hoping that Iran's hardliners will persuade the Supreme Leader to try to launch a showy retaliatory attack that will make it much more difficult for the Biden Administration to re-enter the nuclear deal. But the timing also helps explain why Iran's retaliation will be measured carefully to avoid escalation. Biden represents the one hope Iran has of getting its economy back on track anytime soon.

鉴于这个时间点，以色列现在杀死这位核科学家也就说得通了。唐纳德·特朗普还未下台，那么来自即将上任的拜登团队的任何不满都是可以控制的，至少伊朗的核计划会再次受挫。(以色列过去一直被指责杀害伊朗科学家，只是品级没有法赫里扎德高。)或许以色列希望伊朗的强硬派能够说服伊朗最高领袖发动一场举世瞩目的报复性袭击，阻挠拜登政府重新签署核协议。同时这一时机也有助于解释伊朗为何谨慎进行报复行动、避免升级。拜登代表着伊朗经济尽快回到正轨的唯一希望。

Iran's accusations that Israel killed Fakhrizadeh are made plausible by the sophistication of the attack, and therein lies a worrisome sign of things to come. It appears the nuclear scientist and his security detail were attacked with a remote-controlled machine gun. It's the kind of "lethal autonomous weapon" we're used to seeing in movies. New technologies, particularly the increasing sophistication of drone aircraft, will make asymmetric warfare more common and more effective.

鉴于该次袭击的复杂程度，伊朗指责以色列杀死了法赫里扎德似乎合乎情理，同时也显现了一个令人担忧的迹象。看来这位核科学家和他的安保人员遭到了遥控机关枪的袭击，就是我们在电影里经常看到的那种“自动致命武器”。新技术，特别是日益先进的无人机技术，将使非对称战争更加普遍和有效。