新闻周刊:美国专家预测,美伊战争将以双方的灾难告终(3)（在线收听）

Indeed, Iran has form for such operations. It funded, armed and trained Iraqi insurgents fighting the U.S. occupation of the country after the 2003 invasion. The U.S. military claims Iran was directly to blame for the deaths of 608 military personnel in Iraq between 2003 and 2011. Iran still holds significant influence with many of these well-trained, well-funded and motivated militias—influence that worries the U.S. enough that the State Department has ordered the evacuation of all non-emergency staff from the U.S. embassy in Baghdad and the U.S. consulate in Erbil.

事实上，伊朗已经具备了开展此类行动的条件。它资助、武装和训练伊拉克叛乱分子，在2003年美国入侵伊拉克后与美国占领的伊拉克作战。美国军方声称，伊朗对2003年至2011年608名伊拉克军人的死亡负有直接责任。伊朗在这些训练有素、资金充足、动机积极的民兵组织中仍然拥有重要的影响力，这让美国非常担忧，以至于美国国务院下令从美国驻巴格达大使馆和驻埃尔比勒领事馆撤出所有非紧急工作人员。

Daniel Byman, a professor at Georgetown University's School of Foreign Service, said this shows Iran can hit U.S. and allied targets not only regionally, but also further afield. "(Iran) uses international terrorism, and the U.S. has a global presence," he explained.

乔治敦大学外交学院教授丹尼尔·拜曼说，这表明伊朗不仅可以打击美国及其盟国的地区目标，还可以打击更远的地区。他说:“伊朗利用国际恐怖主义，美国在全球都有存在。

A network of Iranian allies and sympathizers spans much of the northern part of the region, Freeman added, "as well as Saudi Arabia's Eastern Province and Bahrain—where the U.S. Fifth Fleet is headquartered," giving Iran the means to pick targets across the Middle East. "It very likely also has put in place means by which to mount unconventional—or 'terrorist'—counter-strikes on the U.S. homeland," he noted.

弗里曼补充说，伊朗的盟友和同情者网络覆盖了该地区北部的大部分地区，“以及沙特阿拉伯东部省份和巴林——美国第五舰队的总部所在地，”这让伊朗有了在中东挑选目标的手段。他说:“它很可能还采取了对美国本土发动非常规或‘恐怖主义’反击的手段。”

Having been victim to the devastating U.S.-Israeli Stuxnet cyber attack in 2010, the country has also invested heavily in its ability to launch such attacks against the U.S. and its regional allies.

曾是毁灭性的美国的受害者在2010年，美国还在对美国及其地区盟友发动此类攻击的能力上投入了巨资。

The country would likely use its fleet of more than 200 armed speed boats to target or harass U.S. naval vessels or commercial shipping in the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20 percent of all oil traded worldwide transits. Tehran has regularly threatened to close off the Strait with naval mines, anti-ship missiles and its own navy in the event of a conflict.

伊朗可能会动用其200多艘武装快艇，在墨西哥湾和霍尔木兹海峡袭击或骚扰美国海军舰艇或商业船只。全球20%的石油运输都要经过霍尔木兹海峡。德黑兰经常威胁说，如果发生冲突，伊朗将动用水雷、反舰导弹和本国海军封锁霍尔木斯海峡。