新闻周刊:美国专家预测,美伊战争将以双方的灾难告终(4)（在线收听）

But, Byman noted, such a move is akin to "high stakes poker" and could backfire. Not only would Iran be undermining its own ability to export oil, but the knock-on effects on the global economy could drive the international community to drop their skepticism and rally around the U.S. Thus far, Tehran has been able to portray itself as the reasonable party, Byman explained. "Close the straits and that changes."

但是，拜曼指出，这种做法类似于“豪赌扑克”，可能会适得其反。伊朗不仅会削弱自己的石油出口能力，还会对全球经济产生连锁反应，促使国际社会打消疑虑，团结在美国周围。拜曼解释说，到目前为止，德黑兰能够把自己描绘成一个理性的政党。“关闭海峡，情况就会改变。”

The most likely U.S. approach—if indeed war was to break out—would be a limited campaign of airstrikes, potentially alongside special operations raids and cyber attacks, Byman suggested. "I think the Trump administration is, in general, reluctant to expand the US presence on the ground in the Middle East, and do things that might include US casualties," he explained.

拜曼表示，如果真的爆发战争，美国最有可能采取的方式是发动有限的空袭，可能还会进行特别行动袭击和网络攻击。“我认为，总的来说，特朗普政府不愿意扩大美国在中东的势力，不愿意做可能包括美国伤亡在内的事情。”他解释说。

Even small victories for Iran could represent a victory. "Iran might achieve local victories," Byman noted, such as inflicting casualties on U.S. forces or even sinking a ship, "but the overall outcome of this conflict is pretty well-known."

对伊朗来说，即使是小小的胜利也可能代表着一场胜利。“伊朗可能取得局部胜利，”拜曼指出，例如造成美军伤亡，甚至击沉一艘船，“但这场冲突的总体结果是众所周知的。”

"It's a potential disaster for the Iranians militarily, but they might be able to achieve propaganda victories, which really matter," Byman added. "Victory is a political achievement," he suggested, but warned that the U.S. Navy will be ready, having prepared for this war for 30 years.

“这对伊朗的军事来说是一个潜在的灾难，但他们也许能够取得宣传上的胜利，这才是真正重要的，”拜曼补充道。“胜利是一项政治成就，”他建议，但警告说，美国海军将做好准备，他们为这场战争已经准备了30年。

Human, financial, political—a conflict would come with many costs. Freeman noted a war would likely lack the support of the U.S. public and Congress. "If asked to authorize such a war, Congress would almost certainly refuse. So, in addition to being a foreign policy crisis, the current tensions with Iran are also part of the constitutional crisis in the United States, where executive authority now vastly exceeds its constitutional mandate."

人力、财力、政治上的冲突都会带来很多代价。弗里曼指出，战争可能会缺乏美国公众和国会的支持。“如果被要求授权发动这样一场战争，国会几乎肯定会拒绝。因此，除了外交政策危机，目前与伊朗的紧张关系也是美国宪法危机的一部分，美国的行政权力现在大大超过了宪法授权。”

While both sides have vowed they are not seeking conflict, Byman warned that "both sides may take steps that make the situation more dangerous." New military deployments, force preparations and harsh words may all be designed to warn opponents, but could be taken as direct threats. "The message they're trying to send is, 'Don't mess with us,'" Byman explained. "But the message could be interpreted as, 'We're coming after you.'"

虽然双方都誓言不寻求冲突，但拜曼警告说，“双方都可能采取措施，使局势更加危险。”新的军事部署、部队准备和严厉的言辞可能都是为了警告对手，但也可能被视为直接威胁。“他们想传达的信息是，‘别惹我们，’”拜曼解释道。“但这则信息可以被解读为，‘我们就在你后面。’”