新闻周刊:非洲第一个超级大国的到来比你想象的要快(3)（在线收听）

Now, most go by train. At Christmas, an ISIS offshoot of Boko Haram released a video showing 10 Christians being beheaded in Maiduguri. Every conversation about traveling ends with two words: be careful. Amenities in luxury condos include bulletproof glass.

现在，大多数人乘火车去。圣诞节期间，博科圣地的ISIS分支发布了一段视频，显示10名基督徒在迈杜古里被斩首。每一次关于旅行的谈话都以两个字结尾:小心。豪华公寓的设施包括防弹玻璃。

Most say that the security situation is linked to the economy and that those who commit cyber fraud, extortion, piracy and robbery do so because they have no legitimate way to participate in the economy. They are entrepreneurs of violence. "If you have something at stake, you won't be enticed to wear a suicide vest," says Fareedah Yahuza Yashe, who runs the Community Engagement and Social Development Initiative. (CESDI is a nongovernmental organization in Maiduguri that helps female victims of the militant group Boko Haram.)

大多数人表示，安全形势与经济有关，那些实施网络欺诈、勒索、盗版和抢劫的人之所以这样做，是因为他们没有合法途径参与经济活动。他们是暴力的实施者。“如果你有危险，你不会被诱惑穿自杀背心，”社区参与和社会发展项目负责人Fareedah Yahuza Yashe说。（CESDI是迈杜古里的一个非政府组织，帮助博科圣地武装组织的女性受害者。）

It's hard to make progress anywhere, but it's particularly hard in Nigeria. A complex set of policies and agreements keeps the peace between Nigeria's many constituencies—a population of over 250 ethnicities split evenly between Muslims and Christians. In practice, that makes it hard to get anything done. A bill to increase transparency in the oil industry has been stuck in the National Assembly for 19 years. And many are resistant to change. In 2014, Sanusi was fired from his banking post for exposing corruption. Soon after his appointment as emir, Boko Haram suicide bombers and gunmen attacked the mosque next door to the emir's palace, killing over 120 people. Now, the governor of Kano state and a frequent target of Sanusi's criticism, Abdullahi Ganduje, wants to break up the emirate to reduce Sanusi's power.

在任何地方都很难取得进展，但在尼日利亚尤其如此。一套复杂的政策和协议维持了尼日利亚众多宪法之间的和平——超过250个种族的人口平均分为穆斯林和基督徒。实际上，这使得任何事情都很难完成。一项提高石油行业透明度的法案已经在国民议会被搁置了19年。许多人拒绝改变。2014年，萨努西因揭露腐败被银行解雇。在他被任命为埃米尔后不久，博科圣地的自杀式爆炸者和武装分子袭击了埃米尔宫殿旁边的清真寺，杀死了120多人。现在，卡诺州的州长，也是萨努西经常批评的对象，Abdullahi Ganduje，想要打破这个酋长国来削弱萨努西的权力。

Many of the issues, and much of the gridlock, come back to oil. Roughly $100 million worth of oil pours out of the ground each day. Spread across that huge population, that's only about 50 cents per person per day. That's not enough to make everyone rich, but more than enough to make some very rich. It's estimated that 80 percent of the proceeds from oil has gone to 1 percent of the population. It's money worth fighting over, and that's what Nigerians do at every level of the economy. Oil has given politics an outsized importance. As Onubogu says, "If you're excluded from politics, you're excluded from the economy."

多问题和许多僵局都与石油有关。每天大约有价值1亿美元的石油从地下涌出。在这么庞大的人口中，每人每天只有50美分。这还不足以让每个人都变得富有，但足以让一些人变得非常富有。据估计，80%的石油收益流向了1%的人口。这是值得争取的钱，这是尼日利亚人在经济的各个层面所做的。石油让政治变得格外重要。正如Onubogu所言，“如果你被排除在政治之外，你就被排除在经济之外。”