纽约时报 股市即将迎来20年来最大利好（在线收听）

Stocks Are on the Verge of the Best Year Since 1997

股市即将迎来20年来最大利好

The world is enmeshed in a trade war.

全世界都陷入了贸易战。

The president has been impeached.

总统已被弹劾。

The tech industry is under attack from regulators worldwide.

科技行业也已面临着世界各地的监管机构的攻击。

But this year investors said: So what?

投资者却说：那又怎样?

The stock market is closing in on its best year in two decades.

股市即将迎来20年来的最好行情。

With only two days of trading to go, the S&P 500 could fare better than it has since 1997.

再交易两天，标普500指数就能攀升至1997年以来的最高水平。

Stock prices have been buoyed by a mere whiff of optimism that the economy —

人们对经济仍会继续稳步增长——尽管偶尔还是会出现小问题，

despite occasional hiccups and dire prognostications by so-called experts — will keep chugging along.

以及所谓专家的可怕预言——的一丝乐观推动了股票的继续上涨。

And the Federal Reserve deserves credit, too,

美联储的降息之举也值得肯定，

for cutting interest rates despite scowls from a White House that wanted more.

尽管白宫不满其降息幅度不够大而对其予以了斥责。

So far this year, the S&P is up 29 percent.

截至目前，标准普尔指数已经上涨了29%。

But the market crept up gradually as investors felt their way through the turbulent year,

尽管这一年颇为坎坷，投资者们都是摸着石头在过河，好在市场逐渐有了起色，

interrupted only by a handful of short-lived retreats.

期间只出现了为数不多的几次短暂回落。

Since mid-October, stocks haven’t had a single daily gain of more than 1 percent.

自10月中旬以来，股市单日涨幅从未超过1%。

Even on Friday, the increase was tiny, but it left the index at a record and capped a fifth consecutive week of gains.

即便是上周五，涨幅也很小，但该指数仍然创下了历史新高，并出现了连续上涨五周的情形。

Through the uncertainty, investors saw things they liked: Job growth continued, American consumers kept spending,

投资者依然透过这种不确定性看到了他们喜闻乐见的东西：就业持续增长，美国消费者仍在继续消费，

and President Trump’s bluster about the trade war eventually gave way to promises for an early-stage deal with China.

特朗普总统叫嚣的贸易战也还是让位给了与中国初步达成协议的承诺。

The damage the trade war might cause was the biggest concern for both investors and the Fed this year.

贸易战可能造成的损害堪称投资者和美联储今年最大的担忧。

The central bank cut interest rates three times to protect the economy.

为保护美国经济，中央银行已经三度降息。

By December, several key measurements of growth suggested

截至12月，衡量经济增长的多个关键指标表明，

that a recession in the United States was unlikely to ruin the party anytime soon.

经济衰退不太可能在短期内毁掉这场盛宴。

Major American companies reported that their profits continued to grow,

美国的企业巨头报告称，他们的利润仍在继续增长，

and even the tech industry showed resilience in the face of multiple attacks from presidential candidates and Congress.

就连科技行业也没有屈服于总统候选人及国会的多番攻击。

Still, stock market analysts are warning against outright exuberance.

不过，股市分析师依然就股市的全面繁荣敲响了警钟。

The forces that lifted stocks this year might fade, and investors will face a new set of risks in 2020 —

今年提振股市的动力可能会减弱，2020年投资者可能还会面临一系列新风险——

namely that the long-running expansion of the job market could end and corporate profits could start to fall short of expectations.

换句话说，就业市场的长期扩张可能会结束，企业利润可能会开始低于预期。

All good business cycles come to an end, and there’s always a recession somewhere around the corner.

任何景气的经济周期都有结束的一天，总有不景气的经济周期蠢蠢欲动。