纽约时报 新冠疫情威胁全球贸易(1)（在线收听）

Trade Networks Face New Menace In a Coronavirus.

新冠疫情威胁全球贸易

By Peter S. Goodman

文/皮特·S.古德曼

In 2002, when a lethal, pneumonialike virus known as SARS emerged in China,

2002年一种名为SARS，症状类似肺炎的致命病毒在中国出现时，

the country’s factories were mostly churning out low-cost goods like T-shirts and sneakers for customers around the world.

这个国家的工厂大多还停留在为世界各地的客户生产T恤衫和运动鞋等低成本产品的阶段。

Seventeen years later, another deadly virus is spreading rapidly through the world’s most populous country.

17年后，又一种致命病毒迅速席卷了这个世界人口之最的国家。

But China has evolved into a principal element of the global economy,

问题是，此时的中国已经一跃成为全球经济最重要的一环，

making the epidemic a substantially more potent threat to fortunes.

以至于这次疫情对各国财富的影响远超前次非典。

International companies that rely on Chinese factories to make their products

不少由中国工厂供货或依赖中国消费市场的国际企业都已发出警告，

and depend on Chinese consumers for sales are already warning of costly problems.

称此次疫情将会带来沉重的代价。

Apple, Starbucks and Ikea have temporarily closed stores in China.

苹果、星巴克和宜家都已暂时关闭在华门店。

Shopping malls are deserted, threatening sales of Nike sneakers, Under Armour clothing and McDonald’s hamburgers.

中国的各大商场都已空空荡荡，耐克运动鞋、安德玛服装和麦当劳汉堡的销售也都受到了威胁。

Factories making cars for General Motors and Toyota are delaying production

为通用、丰田等公司制造汽车的中国工厂也都已推迟生产，

as they wait for workers to return from the Lunar New Year holiday,

都在等待工人春节假期结束后返岗，

which has been extended by the government to halt the spread of the virus.

而为阻止病毒的传播，中国政府已经延长了本次春节假期。

International airlines, including American, Delta, United, Lufthansa and British Airways, have canceled flights to China.

美国航空、达美航空、美国联合航空、汉莎航空和英国航空等国际航空公司都已取消往返中国的航班。

China’s economic growth is expected to slip this year to 5.6 percent, down from 6.1 percent last year,

牛津经济研究院基于病毒目前造成的影响做出了保守预测，

according to a conservative forecast from Oxford Economics that is based on the impact of the virus so far.

预计2020年中国的经济增速将由去年的6.1%下滑至5.6%。

That would, in turn, reduce global economic growth for the year by 0.2 percent,

世界经济增速也会随之下滑0.2%，

to an annual rate of 2.3 percent — the slowest pace since the global financial crisis a decade ago.

放缓至2008年全球金融危机以来的最低增速——2.3%。

Returning from a long holiday for the first time since the coronavirus’s threat became clear,

随着冠状病毒的危害逐渐明朗，周一，也即春节长假后的首个交易日，

Chinese investors sent shares in China down about 8 percent on Monday.

中国股市便大跌了近8%。

Stock markets around the world have plunged in recent days

此次公共卫生危机或将严重冲击世界经济这一担忧已经深入人心，

as the sense takes hold that a public health crisis could morph into an economic shock.

故近日全球股市都已出现普遍下跌现象。

In a sign of deepening concern, China’s leaders on Sunday outlined plans to inject fresh credit into the economy.

周日，中国政府宣布了往该国经济注入新的信贷支持的计划，

That will include a net $22 billion to shore up money markets as well as looser borrowing terms for Chinese companies.

如为支持银行体系流动性，放宽向中国企业放贷的条件注入的220亿元净投放，可见其对此次疫情的担忧正在加剧。

Though China’s factories still produce a mind-bending array of relatively simple, low-value products like clothing and plastic goods,

尽管中国仍有一部分大量出产服装、塑料制品等工艺相对简单的低廉产品的工厂，

they have long since achieved dominance in more advanced and lucrative pursuits like smartphones, computers and auto parts.

但它们也早已占据了智能手机、计算机和汽车零部件等更先进、更有利可图的领域的主体地位。

The country has evolved into an essential part of the global supply chain, producing components needed by factories from Mexico to Malaysia.

该国已经成为全球供应链中至关重要的一环，远至墨西哥，近至马来西亚的工厂都在用该国供应的零部件。

China has also risen into an enormous consumer market,

中国的消费市场也已不容小觑，

a nation of 1.4 billion people with a growing appetite for electronic gadgets, fashion apparel and trips to Disneyland.

这个有着14亿人口的人口大家对电子产品，时装、迪士尼乐园的兴趣也在与日俱增。

The trade war waged by the Trump administration has prompted a partial decoupling of the United States and China, the two largest economies on earth.

特朗普政府发动的贸易战一定程度上淡化了美中两国这两个世界最大经济体的关系。

Multinational companies that have used factories in China to make their wares

为规避美国的关税政策，从前与中国工厂合作的跨国公司

have sought to avoid American tariffs by shifting production to other countries — especially Vietnam.

本就已经开始往其他国家转移生产，尤其是越南。

The coronavirus might accelerate that trend, at least for a time, should global companies find themselves locked out of China.

如果跨国公司发现疫情影响了其在中国的发展，新冠病毒或许会加剧这一趋势，至少一段时间内会是如此。