纽约时报 新冠疫情威胁全球贸易(3)（在线收听）

Similar worries accompanied the outbreak of SARS in 2002 and 2003,

2002-2003年非典（SARS）爆发时人们便曾有过类似的担忧，

when the virus emerged in the southern province of Guangdong

当时，病毒最先出现在了中国南部的广东省，

before spreading across China and around the world, killing nearly 800 people in at least 17 countries.

后来蔓延至整个中国乃至其他国家，造成至少17个国家近800人死亡。

China had just joined the World Trade Organization, gaining access to markets around the globe.

那时，中国刚加入世贸组织，开始涉足全球市场，

It was harnessing its seemingly limitless supply of low-wage workers to produce cheap consumer goods.

凭借着源源不断的廉价劳动力生产廉价的消费品。

Its economy centered on exports.

而其经济运转主要依赖于出口。

Its consumer market remained in its infancy.

其消费市场也还处于起步阶段。

In the years since, China’s annual economic output has multiplied more than eightfold,

然世界银行的数据显示，自那以后，中国的年度经济产出已经扩容7倍不止，

to nearly $14 trillion from $1.7 trillion, according to the World Bank.

从1.7万亿美元增至近14万亿美元。

Its share of global trade has more than doubled,

牛津经济研究院的数据也显示，

to 12.8 percent last year from 5.3 percent in 2003, according to Oxford Economics.

中国的全球贸易份额亦增长了一倍多，从2003年的5.3%增至去年的12.8%。

Its economic output per person has multiplied to roughly $9,000 last year from about $1,500 in 2003,

人均产出从2003年的1500美元左右增至去年的9000美元左右，

giving households additional cash for an enormous range of consumer goods.

中国家庭已有足够的闲钱购置种类繁多的消费类产品。

“China today accounts for about one-third of global economic growth,

“如今，中国贡献的经济增长已近全球经济增长总量的1/3，

a larger share of global growth than from the U.S., Europe and Japan combined,”

甚至超出了美国，欧洲，日本的份额总和，”

Andy Rothman, an economist at Matthews Asia, an investment fund manager,

投资基金管理机构铭基亚洲的经济学家安迪·罗斯曼

noted during recent testimony before a congressional panel.

最近在美国国会某委员会的听证会上指出。

The American semiconductor industry is particularly entrenched in China,

在与中方商贸往来的外国行业中，美国的半导体行业尤其依赖中国，

which is both a major manufacturing hub and a market for its products.

因中国不仅是美国半导体的一大制造中枢，也是其产品的重要消费市场。

Intel’s customers in China accounted for about $20 billion in revenue in 2019, or 28 percent of its total for the year.

2019年，中国消费者便为英特尔贡献了近200亿美元的收入，占其全年收入的28%。

Qualcomm, the dominant maker of chips for mobile phones, is even more dependent on China,

相比之下，大型手机芯片制造商高通对中国的依赖更甚，

drawing 47 percent of its annual revenue — or nearly $12 billion — from sales in the country.

足有47%的年收入（近120亿美元）来自中国市场。

No one knows how long the coronavirus outbreak will last, how far it will spread, or how many lives it will claim.

谁也说不清此次新冠疫情将会持续多久，蔓延至何地，又会夺去多少人的性命，

It is impossible to calculate the extent to which it will disrupt China’s economy.

亦无法估量疫情将会给中国经济造成何等严重的损失。

But China’s formidable stature in the world economy means that the impact of the current outbreak

不仅如此，鉴于中国在世界经济中令人望而生畏的地位，

is likely to substantially exceed that of SARS.

此次疫情的影响或将远超非典。

“The knock-on effects for the global economy are going to be much larger than they were,”

“较之以往，这次冠状疫情对全球经济的影响将会严重得多，”

said Nicholas R. Lardy, a China expert at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington.

华盛顿彼得森国际经济研究所的中国问题专家尼古拉斯·R·拉迪评论道。

For manufacturers, the timing of the outbreak may limit the damage.

对制造商们而言，此次疫情爆发的时机或在一定程度上减轻了他们的损失。

They just completed the fourth quarter, when production increases to meet demand for the winter holidays.

疫情爆发时，他们刚刚结束第四季度的生产，且以加大生产力度以满足寒假的供货需求。

The end of January is typically slow.

尽管一月末的生产节奏历来缓慢，

But the effects of the virus on supply chains, which have grown notoriously complex, are difficult to anticipate.

但冠状病毒对供应链的影响仍难预料，原因在于供应链已经变得及其复杂。

A single part of an advanced product like a smart TV may be made of dozens of smaller components,

智能电视等高端产品一个部件可能就有几十个小零件，

with each of these assembled from other pieces.

而每一个小零件也是由更小的零件组装而成。

Companies themselves often do not know the suppliers that are three and four rungs down the chain.

连提供产品的公司自己对下游的三四级供应商往往都不甚了解。