纽约时报 新冠疫情威胁全球贸易(4)（在线收听）

“If you run out of widgets that are essential to production processes and all those widgets come from China,

“如果于你的生产不可或缺的部件已经快要耗尽，而那些部件又来自中国的话，

then it may well be that your production lines go to a halt,”

那你的生产线很可能要面临中断了，”

said Ben May, global economist at Oxford Economics in London.

伦敦牛津经济研究院全球经济学家本·梅说道。

“These problems are likely to be popping up all over the world.”

“世界各国都会陆续出现这一问题。”

This became a problem in the aftermath of the 2011 earthquake and tsunami in Japan, which devastated manufacturers.

2011年日本发生地震和海啸时便已出现过这一问题，最终对制造商予以了重创。

Many companies assumed they were buying parts from a diverse range of suppliers, protecting them from shortages,

当时，许多企业都以为，他们所用的零部件购自多家供应商，不存在供应短缺的问题，

only to realize that critical components were produced by single plants.

最终却发现，他们的核心零部件全都来自同一工厂。

If that plays out in China, the consequences are likely to be great.

如若这一情形在中国身上重演，结局恐十分严重。

“We’re talking about a potentially vast swath of a country that the whole world depends on as a manufacturing workshop,”

“此次讨论的对象是扮演着整个全球市场的加工工厂的这么一个国家的一大片地区，”

said Susan Helper, an economist at Case Western Reserve University and the former chief economist at the Commerce Department.

凯斯西储大学经济学家、前美国商务部首席经济学家苏珊·赫尔珀说道。

“The effects will be unexpected.”

“其影响势必超乎我们的预料。”

Apple assembles most of its products in China.

苹果公司有大部分产品都在中国组装。

The company has severely restricted travel in China for its employees,

该公司首席执行官蒂莫西·D.库克在周二的财报电话会议上指示，

its chief executive officer, Timothy D. Cook, said on an earnings call on Tuesday.

公司已经严格限制员工在中国的差旅。

Apple disclosed much wider volatility in its potential revenues for the current quarter

苹果还披露，鉴于工厂生产及产品销量的不确定性，

in the face of uncertainties around factory production and sales of its products.

本季度的可能收入或将面临更大幅度的波动。

Those uncertainties deepened on Saturday.

周六(2月1日)，上述不确定性进一步加剧。

Apple, which derives about one-sixth of its sales from China, announced that it would close its 42 stores in the country.

因苹果——约有1/6的销售额来自中国——于当天宣布，暂时关闭中国的42家门店。

Walmart buys vast volumes of its products from Chinese factories

沃尔玛从中国工厂购入了大量产品，

while operating 430 stores in the country, including in areas shut down by quarantine.

同时在中国，包括因疫情歇业的地区经营着430家门店。

The company has reduced hours at some stores, a Walmart spokeswoman said.

据沃尔玛的一位发言人透露，公司已经缩短了部分门店的营业时间。

“We may still be in the early stages,” of the coronavirus crisis,

“或许我们仍处于新型冠状病毒疫情的早期阶段。”

Judith McKenna, who runs Walmart’s International business, wrote in an internal memo on Friday.

负责沃尔玛国际业务的朱迪斯·麦肯纳在周五的一份内部备忘录中写道。

China is the world’s largest manufacturer of toys.

此外，中国还是世界最大的玩具生产国。

At the International Toy Fair in Nuremberg, Germany,

在德国纽伦堡的国际玩具博览会上，

many Chinese suppliers expressed confidence that their factories would soon reopen,

不少中国供应商都表示，他们对工厂近期复工有信心，

said Rick Woldenberg, chief executive of Learning Resources,

伊利诺伊州教育产品和玩具制造商，

a family-owned manufacturer of educational products and toys in Illinois.

家族企业“学源”的首席执行官瑞克·沃尔登伯格说道。

“But no one’s quite sure how much of this information can be relied upon,” Mr. Woldenberg said.

沃尔登伯格接着说道，“但没人确切知道这一信息可信度有多大”。

Because of the trade war, the toy industry was effectively prepared for a moment

沃尔登伯格称，受贸易战的影响，玩具业原本就已开始未雨绸缪，

in which its access to Chinese suppliers was imperiled, Mr. Woldenberg said.

为他们来自中国的货源供应不济的那一天做准备。

In December, when the Trump administration was threatening to impose an additional 15 percent tariff on Chinese imports,

去年12月，特朗普政府威胁要对中国出口美国的玩具加征15%的关税时，

many toy companies sped up their orders to beat the deadline.

许多玩具公司就已开始加快订单生产速度，试图赶在关税生效之前完成订单。

Some shifted production to Thailand and Vietnam to avoid the tariffs altogether.

有些公司甚至将生产转移到了泰国和越南，意图彻底避开关税。

Toymakers will soon need to rebuild inventory.

尽管如此，玩具制造需要补充库存的日子已经不远。

“If this goes on for four more months, we are talking about a big problem,”

“如果当前的形势再持续四个月，我们就会面临大问题，”

said Jim Silver, chief executive of TTPM.com, a consumer research site.

消费者研究网站TTPM.com首席执行官吉姆·西尔弗说道。

After SARS, China suffered several months of economic contraction and then rebounded dramatically.

非典过后，中国经济历经了几个月的收缩才开始出现大幅增长。

That might happen this time, too.

这一次，历史或将重演。

The only certainty is this: Whatever happens in China will be felt widely.

而唯一可以肯定的是：不管中国发生什么，受影响的将远不止中国自己。

“Clearly China has become a much more dominant player in the world economy,” said Mr. May of Oxford Economics.

“很明显，中国在世界经济舞台上的地位早已今非昔比，”牛津经济研究院的梅评论道。

“It’s just so much more involved in the global supply chain.

“中国在全球供应链中的参与度也已经有了极大提升。

Over the last decade, it has been the spender of last resort for the global economy.”

过去10年里，中国一直是全球经济万不得已时的消费保障。”