美国国家公共电台 NPR 约旦王室“宫斗” 恐影响中东地区局势（在线收听）

A country that has long been a key U.S. ally and a source of stability in the Middle East is claiming an internal threat to its own stability this weekend. Authorities in Jordan say they've arrested several high-level officials who are part of a plot to destabilize the kingdom. Those arrested include a half-brother of King Abdullah, the former Crown Prince Hamzah bin Hussein. In a leaked video, the prince denied he was part of any foreign-backed conspiracy. He said he was under house arrest solely for expressing dissent.

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HAMZAH BIN HUSSEIN: Even to criticize a small aspect of a policy leads to arrest and abuse by the security services. And it's reached the point where no one is able to speak or express an opinion on anything without being bullied, arrested, harassed and threatened.

FADEL: Here to give us more insight on what is happening in Jordan is Nabih Bulos. He's Middle East correspondent for the Los Angeles Times, and he joins us from Amman, Jordan.

NABIH BULOS: Thank you so much for having me. I appreciate it.

FADEL: So break this down for us because there's a lot of intrigue surrounding this situation. What's happening in Jordan?

BULOS: Well, so, first of all, it should be said there's not much information still. I mean, today, the deputy prime minister, who is also the foreign minister, by the way, gave a pretty lengthy statement. But it was nevertheless quite low on details. So far, what has been said is that essentially, the prince was in touch with various groups, including Jordanian opposition groups based abroad. And the intention was to destabilize the country — in theory, to eventually replace the king with the former crown prince.

FADEL: So as we mentioned earlier, Jordan is thought to be one of the most stable countries in the Middle East. How could this development upset that stability?

BULOS: Well, the fact of the matter is that so far, I have to admit there is still stability.

FADEL: Yeah.

BULOS: I mean, this morning, you know, the day after all these shocking allegations — and really, I mean, this was unprecedented in recent Jordanian history — the country nevertheless functioned. And you didn't see tanks on the street. You didn't see, you know, necessarily a huge police presence. I mean, in fact, I actually drove across the country today. I had an appointment in the north of Jordan, and I was able to get there and back with no trouble and indeed was able to do my work without any interruption.

So, you know, I would argue that actually so far, the country is still stable. But in the long run, I think this will be a problem because the fact of the matter is that the prince is actually quite a popular figure, especially among the traditional power base in the country — you know, the tribal figures, et cetera, right? He was seen as someone who was closer to those traditional power brokers. And so the fact of the matter is this won't go down very easily. That's where I expect the problem will be.

And, of course, it's also worth noting that the kingdom is going through a terrible time economically now because of the coronavirus and several other factors. So there is already discontent.

FADEL: Now, we're seeing a lot of regional allies backing the moves by King Abdullah. We're also — as we're hearing the crown prince, or the former crown prince, now say that really, this is just a crackdown on any type of criticism or dissent. And this is a key U.S. ally. So does the U.S. perhaps face a tough choice here? Do they stand up for a key ally, or do they stand up potentially for the right to dissent in the kingdom?

BULOS: Well, historically speaking, Jordan has been, you know, a country that has always punched above its weight in terms of its importance. I mean, the fact is, its sheer landmass and its resources don't make it that important, but its location does because finally, it's bordered by Israel, by Iraq, by Syria, Saudi Arabia, et cetera. And it has managed to actually remain quite stable even though the neighborhood is not very stable at all, as you imagine.

And so the fact of the matter is that Jordan now plays host to about 600,000 Syrian refugees and roughly 2 million Palestinian refugees and their offspring. You know, so we're not talking about a country that is, you know, just dealing with its own population. There are others there. So the fact of the matter is that you cannot just let Jordan fall. The fear is that if you do, you will have another huge problem in the Middle East that will cause, you know, a ripple effect in other areas.

FADEL: That was Nabih Bulos, Middle East correspondent with the Los Angeles Times. Nabih, thank you so much for being with us.

BULOS: Thank you so much for having me. I appreciate it.

上周末，一个长期以来一直是美国重要盟友和中东地区稳定之源的国家称本国稳定遭遇内部威胁。约旦有关部门表示，他们逮捕了多名高级官员，这些官员涉嫌参与破坏约旦王国稳定的阴谋。被捕者包括国王阿卜杜拉同父异母的弟弟、前王储哈姆扎·本·侯赛因亲王。在遭泄露的视频中，亲王否认自己参与了任何外国支持的阴谋。他说自已被软禁仅仅是因为表达了不同意见。

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哈姆扎·本·侯赛因：即使批评政策的一个小方面，也会被安全部门逮捕和虐待。现在的情况是，没有人能够在不被欺侮、逮捕、骚扰和威胁的情况下就任何事情发表言论或发表意见。

法德尔：纳比赫·布洛斯将就约旦目前的局势进行详细报道 。他是《洛杉矶时报》驻中东地区的记者，他将从约旦首都安曼和我们连线。

纳比赫·布洛斯：非常感谢你们邀请我。谢谢。

法德尔：请帮我们详细分析一下，因为围绕当前情况有很多阴谋。约旦发生了什么？

布洛斯：首先，应该说目前我们掌握的信息并不多。今天，约旦副首相兼外交大臣发表了一份相当长的声明。但这份声明提供的详细信息并不多。截至目前，我们了解到的情况是，亲王与各种组织保持联系，包括总部设在境外的约旦反对派组织。其意图是破坏国家稳定——理论上，最终目标是由前王储取代国王。

法德尔：我们刚才提到过，约旦被认为是中东地区最稳定的国家之一。这一发展是否会破坏这种稳定？

布洛斯：事实上，到目前为止，我必须承认该国仍保持稳定。

法德尔：好。

布洛斯：今天早上，即在所有这些令人震惊的指控之后的第二天——这是约旦近代史上前所未有的事情——这个国家仍然运转正常。街上没有坦克。也没有不可避免地部署大批警察。事实上，我今天开车穿越了这个国家。我和人约好在约旦北部见面，而我能够顺利地往返，也能不受任何干扰地完成我的工作。

我认为实际上到目前为止，这个国家还仍保持稳定。但从长远来看，我认为这将成为问题，因为亲王是备受欢迎的人物，特别是在这个国家的传统权力基础中——部落人物等，对吧？他被视为与传统权力掮客关系更密切的人。因此，事实上这不会轻易被接受。我想这就是问题所在。

当然，值得一提的是，由于冠状病毒和其他一些因素的影响，约旦经济正处于非常糟糕的时期。因此，该国国内已经有不满的声音出现。

法德尔：现在，我们看到许多地区盟友支持阿卜杜拉国王的行动。我们也听到前王储说，这是对任何批评或异议的镇压。约旦是美国的重要盟友。那美国在这方面可能面临艰难的选择吗？美国是会支持这个重要盟友，还是可能会支持约旦王国的异议权？

布洛斯：从历史上讲，约旦这个国家的重要性总是凌驾于其地位之上。事实上，该国的国土面积和资源并没有多重要，但其地理位置却非常重要，因为该国与以色列、伊拉克、叙利亚、沙特阿拉伯等国接壤。而且即使在邻国并不太稳定的情况下，该国仍能保持稳定状态。

约旦目前收容了约60万名叙利亚难民以及约200万名巴勒斯坦难民及其后代。因此我们现在谈论的这个国家不仅要应对自已的人口问题。还要应对难民问题。所以不能让约旦崩盘。人们担心的是，如果发生这种情况，就会在中东遇到另一个严重问题，而这将在其他地区造成连锁反应。

法德尔：以上是《洛杉矶时报》驻中东记者纳比赫·布洛斯带来的报道。纳比赫，非常感谢你和我们连线。

布洛斯：谢谢你们邀请我。谢谢。