美国国家公共电台 NPR 美国挥舞制裁大棒 俄罗斯立即展开反制（在线收听）

The message from President Biden to Russian President Vladimir Putin this week — let's talk. But first, some sanctions. The U.S. has slapped more than 30 Russian entities and individuals with economic sanctions. It's also expelling 10 Russian diplomats from the U.S. These measures are framed as retaliation for the massive cyberattack the U.S. says was mastermind by Russian intelligence services last year and for interference in the 2020 election. So what impact might this have on Russia? And what does that mean for Biden's relationship with Putin?

本周，拜登总统传递给俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京的信息是：我们谈谈。但首先，要实施制裁。美国对30多个俄罗斯实体和个人实施了经济制裁。同时还将驱逐10名俄罗斯外交人员。这些措施是为了报复措施美国所称的俄罗斯情报部门去年策划的大规模网络攻击以及对2020年选举的干预。那这对俄罗斯有何影响？对拜登与普京的关系又意味着什么？

Let's put those questions to Alina Polyakova. She's president of the Center for European Policy Analysis and joins us now from Washington. Hi there.

现在我们请爱丽娜·波利亚科娃来回答这些问题。她是欧洲政策分析中心的主席，现在将从华盛顿和我们连线。你好。

ALINA POLYAKOVA: Hi, Debbie. Good to be here.

爱丽娜·波利亚科娃：你好，黛比。我很高兴。

ELLIOTT: President Biden seems to be walking a fine line here. He obviously felt the need to push back at Russia for its interference. But Biden also says he's open to dialogue with Putin and wants to actually meet with him. What do you make of this strategy?

埃利奥特：拜登总统似乎在谨慎行事好。他显然觉得有必要回击俄罗斯的干涉。但拜登同时表示，他愿意与普京对话，并希望与普京举行会谈。你怎么看这个策略？

POLYAKOVA: Well, that's right. It's important to know that this is really the first major move we've seen from the new administration on Russia, and clearly there's a strategy developing here of carrots and sticks. You know, these are the sticks that we're talking about now — the sanctions, the expulsions. But there's also the carrot, which, of course, is the summit that President Biden suggested to have with President Putin, a third country sometime later this year. It's very clear the administration is trying to balance a punitive set of measures, as well as presenting an incentive to Russia to come back to the table.

波利亚科娃：没错。重要的是要知道，这是我们看到的新政府在俄罗斯问题上做出的首个重大举措，很明显，政府正在制定“胡萝卜加大棒”的战略。我们刚才谈到的制裁和驱逐是“大棒”。但也有胡萝卜，这当然是拜登总统建议今年晚些时候在第三国与普京总统举行峰会。显然，政府正在试图平衡一系列惩罚性措施，同时也在激励俄罗斯重返谈判桌。

ELLIOTT: So is this largely symbolic, or is it going to have a real effect on Russian leadership and the Russian economy?

埃利奥特：这在很大程度上是象征性举措，还是会对俄罗斯领导层和俄罗斯经济产生真正的影响？

POLYAKOVA: It's symbolic, but it is significant because it's not targeted sanctions on a specific person or specific company. It's much more sweeping. It's much more broad. And it establishes a potential escalation, meaning that is sending a signal that the administration is willing to go even further into areas where the Trump administration and even the Obama administration really wasn't willing to go into. Sanctions don't tend to work immediately. It's really a long-term kind of effect. But there certainly will be consequences here.

波利亚科娃：这是象征性的举措，但意义重大，因为这不是针对特定个人或特定公司的制裁。这些措施范围更宽，也更广泛。而且这形成了潜在的升级，也就是发出信号，称美国政府愿意进一步进入特朗普政府甚至奥巴马政府不愿意进入的领域。制裁往往不会立即奏效。这实际上是一种长期影响。但肯定会产生后果。

ELLIOTT: Just for clarity, this means that U.S. financial institutions can't buy Russian bonds, correct?

埃利奥特：我们要明确一下，这意味着美国金融机构不能购买俄罗斯债券，对吗？

POLYAKOVA: That's exactly right. It doesn't address resale market, so there's still steps that the administration could take that could hurt a lot more if it wanted to.

波利亚科娃：完全正确。这没有解决转售市场的问题，因此，如果政府愿意，其仍可以采取一些措施，这可能会造成更大的伤害。

ELLIOTT: Now, we should note that Russia has retaliated. It's expelling 10 American diplomats and is threatening, quote, "painful measures" against U.S. businesses there in Russia. What other levers does Russia have?

埃利奥特：我们应该指出，俄罗斯已经进行了反制。该国驱逐了10名美国外交人员，并威胁说要对在俄美国企业采取“痛苦的措施”。俄罗斯还有什么手段？

POLYAKOVA: Well, to be honest, the economic relationship between the U.S. and Russia is quite insignificant. It's the largest country in the world but has the GDP about the size of Italy or Spain. So there's very little that the Russian government can do to impose pains on the United States. Of course, companies — like, tech companies Google, Twitter, Facebook, many others operate in Russia. They really have become a powerful tool for Russian opposition voices. I would expect them to see some retribution from those going forward.

波利亚科娃：老实说，美俄之间的经济关系微不足道。俄罗斯是世界上领土面积最大的国家，但其国内生产总值与意大利或西班牙相当。因此，俄罗斯政府几乎无力对美国施加痛苦。当然，谷歌、推特、脸谱网等的科技公司以及很多其他公司都在俄罗斯运营。这些公司对俄罗斯反对派声音来说是有力的工具。我预计这些公司未来会遭受惩罚。

ELLIOTT: The relationship between Russia and the U.S. has been fraught for so long. Do you see opportunities for cooperation with this new U.S. administration, or is there a risk here of maybe returning to Cold War territory?

埃利奥特：长期以来，俄罗斯和美国的关系一直令人担忧。你有看到俄罗斯与美国新政府合作的机会吗？还是说存在重返冷战时期的风险？

POLYAKOVA: Well, the truth is that we've been at a very low point in the U.S.-Russia relationship for a very long time. With this particular Kremlin, meaning with Mr. Putin in charge — and right now, it looks like he could stay in charge for the rest of his life — I don't think we're going to see much improvement in the relationship, unfortunately. I think part of this move by the U.S. administration was also to set expectations that it's a pretty low bar in terms of what we see as potential for our cooperation. It's really broad dialogue on strategic stability, whatever that may mean. It's cooperation on proliferation and nuclear issues. The administration did extend the nuclear arms treaty, the New START treaty, earlier this year. But overall, it's a very, very low set of expectations. But unfortunately, I think it's a realistic set of expectations given the nature of the relationship we've seen develop over the last decades.

波利亚科娃：美俄关系长期处于低谷。由于克里姆林宫的特殊情况，也就是说，由普京掌权——现在看来，他可能掌权一辈子——不幸的是，我认为我们的关系不会有太大改善。我认为，美国政府此举也是为了树立期望，就我们认为的合作潜力而言，这是一个相当低的门槛。比如在战略稳定上开展广泛对话，无论这意味着什么。还有在扩散和核问题上开展合作。美国政府确实在今年早些时候延长了《新削减战略武器条约》。但总的来说，这些都是非常非常低的期望。但不幸的是，考虑到我们过去几十年来所发展关系的性质，我认为这是现实的期望。

ELLIOTT: Alina Polyakova runs the Center for European Policy Analysis. Thanks so much.

埃利奥特：以上是欧洲政策分析中心的爱丽娜·波利亚科娃带来的介绍。非常谢谢你。

POLYAKOVA: Thank you, Debbie.

波利亚科娃：谢谢你，黛比。