2021年经济学人 新兴市场投资者的葵花宝典(1)（在线收听）

Buttonwood

梧桐

A tourist's guide

一份旅行指南

The appeal of high-yielding emerging-market dollar bonds

新兴市场美元债券的吸引力

The hunt for bonds that pay more interest to retirees and others requiring a fixed income has taken institutional investors to some exotic places in recent years. Last month they alighted on Ghana, which issued $3bn-worth of Eurobonds, as dollar bonds issued outside America are known. Ghana may be exotic but it is also risky. Its government debt-to-GDP ratio was a hefty 78% in 2020. With such risks come rewards: the yields on Ghana's new Eurobonds were roughly 8-9%.

近年来，机构投资者为了追逐能够给退休人员和其他需要固定收益的人支付更高利息的债券，纷纷前往异国他乡。上个月，他们盯上了加纳，加纳发行了价值30亿美元的欧洲债券(即在美国以外发行的美元债券)。加纳可能怀有异国情调，但它也有风险。2020年，其政府债务与GDP之比高达78%。这样的风险带来了回报：加纳新发行的欧元债券的收益率约为8-9%。

The alternatives are hardly compelling. The spread, or additional yield, over Treasury bonds offered by American corporate bonds is close to its pre-pandemic low and not far from its all-time low. For a given credit rating, an investor can usually get a wider spread over Treasuries (and thus a higher expected return) by buying the dollar bonds issued by an emerging-market sovereign, says Yacov Arnopolin of pimco, a big bondfund manager.

这一选择很难令人信服。美国公司债券与国库券之间的息差(或者说额外收益)已经接近大流行前的低点，距离历史低点也不远。大型债券基金管理公司太平洋投资管理公司(PIMCO)的雅各布·阿诺珀林表示，对于给定的信用评级，投资者通常可以通过购买新兴市场主权国家发行的美元债券，获得与美国国债更大的利差(从而获得更高的预期回报)。

There are reasons for the discrepancy. Investors feel more comfortable owning corporate bonds, because the Federal Reserve has, in effect, provided a liquidity backstop for the market since last March. American companies stand to benefit from President Joe Biden's $1.9trn fiscal-stimulus package. A rapid vaccine roll-out means America's economy will get back to normal far sooner than most emerging markets. On top of this lies another factor. The risk of corporate default is something that can be calculated in a spreadsheet model. But working out the chances of a sovereign default is a more complex business.

这种差异是有原因的。投资者更愿意持有公司债券，因为自去年3月以来，美联储实际上为市场提供了流动性支持。美国企业将从乔·拜登总统1.9万亿美元的财政刺激计划中受益。疫苗的迅速推出意味着美国经济会比大多数新兴市场更快恢复正常。除此之外，还有一个因素。企业违约的风险可以通过电子表格模型计算出来，但计算主权债务违约的可能性是一件更加复杂的事情。

Start with the things you can put in a spreadsheet, such as debt loads. The IMF divides poorer countries into two categories, middle- and low-income. The first group saw public-debt burdens rise by around ten percentage points, to 64% of GDP in 2020. Those for the second, which includes Ghana, rose by around five percentage points, to 49.5%. Ghana's debt burden is thus well above that of its peer group. Like some other poor countries, it had a lot of lumpy dollar debts coming due in 2022-24. That is why it used some of the proceeds of its recent sale to retire a Eurobond maturing in 2023.

从可以放入电子表格的东西开始，比如债务负担。国际货币基金组织将较贫穷的国家分为两类，中等收入国家和低收入国家。第一类中等收入国家的公共债务负担上升了大约10个百分点，2020年达到GDP的64%。第二类低收入国家，包括加纳，增长了大约5个百分点，达到49.5%。因此，加纳的债务负担远远高于其他同类国家。和其他贫穷国家一样，它有大量的美元债务将在2022-24年到期。这就是为什么它用最近出售的部分收益来偿还2023年到期的欧元债券。