2021年经济学人 新兴市场投资者的葵花宝典(2)（在线收听）

The debt burden and maturity profile only get you so far. There are three other influences that investors might usefully bear in mind. The first is commodity prices. The collapse in crude prices last year left a few oil-producing countries short of hard-currency earnings. It played a part in the troubles of Ecuador, one of six countries to default on its bonds last year. For a while it seemed likely that Angola, a highly indebted oil exporter, would follow suit. Support from China and the IMF saved it, along with a marked pickup in the oil price late last year. Rising metals prices are also helpful to many indebted countries. The copper price is important for Chile, Peru and Zambia; the price of gold to Ghana and South Africa.

债务负担和到期债务组合只能帮到你这么多。投资者可能还需记住另外三个影响因素。首先是商品价格。去年原油价格的暴跌使得一些产油国的硬通货收入不足。这是厄瓜多尔去年遇到麻烦的部分原因，厄瓜多尔是去年六个拖欠债券的国家之一。一段时间以来，负债累累的石油出口国安哥拉似乎也会步其后风。来自中国和国际货币基金组织(IMF)的支持，加上去年末油价的显著回升，拯救了它。金属价格上涨也有利于许多负债国家。铜价对智利、秘鲁和赞比亚都很重要，黄金价格对加纳和南非很重要。

The second factor is exposure to tourism. The hit to the industry from the pandemic played a part in the default of Belize and in stresses elsewhere, says Stuart Culverhouse of Tellimer, an emerging-market research firm. It might take years for tourism to recover fully. The IMF recently sharply downgraded its forecasts for the Caribbean economies. Sri Lanka has been dogged by fears of default, in part because it has heavy debts, but also because of lost income from tourists. For Kenya, an energyimporter with a hefty debt burden, a hit to tourism and a higher oil price is an unfortunate combination.

第二个因素是旅游业。新兴市场研究公司Tellimer的斯图尔特·卡尔弗豪斯说，这一流行病对工业的打击在一定程度上造成了伯利兹的违约和其他地方的压力。旅游业可能需要数年时间才能完全恢复。国际货币基金组织最近大幅下调了对加勒比经济体的预测。斯里兰卡一直被债务违约的担忧所困扰，部分原因是该国债务沉重，另一方面是因为来自游客收入的减少。对于肯尼亚这样一个背负着沉重债务负担的能源进口国来说，旅游业的打击和油价上涨是一个不幸的组合。

A third influence is the imf. Understanding its ways is an essential part of investing in emerging-market bonds. The fund has lent a total of $110bn, supporting 86 countries, since the pandemic struck. Some of this has been in the form of debt relief; some in rapid-fire lending and credit lines; some of it is programme lending with strings attached. The IMF is readying a $650bn issue of special drawing rights (SDRS)—essentially an overdraft facility at a negligible interest rate—for its members. The SDR gift will make a big difference to smaller countries, in some cases doubling their foreign-exchange reserves, says Yvette Babb of William Blair, an asset manager.

第三个影响因素是国际货币基金组织。了解其方向是投资新兴市场债券必不可少的一部分。自疫情爆发以来，该基金总共提供了1100亿美元贷款，支持了86个国家。其中一些是以债务减免的形式，一些是快速发放贷款和信用额度，其中一些是附加条件的项目贷款。国际货币基金组织正准备为其成员国发行6500亿美元的特别提款权——本质上是一种利率可忽略不计的透支工具。资产管理公司William Blair的伊薇特·芭布表示，特别提款权的馈赠将对小国产生巨大的影响，在某些情况下会使它们的外汇储备翻一番。

A frosty relationship with the fund is probably unwise. The kinder, gentler IMF has kept sovereign defaults in check much as central-bank action and fiscal stimulus have kept corporate defaults in check in the rich world. There may well be further setbacks to some sovereign Eurobond issuers. But a lot more yieldstarved investors may soon be dusting off their atlases.

与IMF的冷淡关系可能是不明智的。更友善、更温和的国际货币基金组织一直在控制主权债务违约，就像发达国家通过央行的行动和财政刺激来控制企业债务违约一样。一些欧洲主权债券发行者很可能会遭遇进一步的挫折。而更多渴望收益的投资者可能很快就会抹去他们地图册上的灰尘。