2021年经济学人 疫散终有时,余波尚无期(1)（在线收听）

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Long covid

新冠病毒的长期并发症

And now for the aftershock

余波未平

Evidence is mounting that long covid is a real threat to global health

越来越多的证据表明，新冠病毒的长期并发症会对全球健康构成真正威胁

As the world enters the second year of the pandemic, two crises are unfolding. The more urgent and visible one is in poor countries like India, where a surge of covid-19 cases is threatening to overwhelm the state. India is recording more than 350,000 cases a day, and many more than that are thought to be going undetected. The suffering is grievous. Oxygen supplies at Indian hospitals are running far short of what is needed, and crematoriums are overwhelmed.

在世界迈入新冠疫情的第二年之际，两大危机正拉开序幕。其中更为紧迫和显见的危机蔓延于印度这样的穷国，新冠病例的疯长让整个印度正面临着被疫情压垮的危机。印度单日记录病例超过35万，据信还有大量病例未被查出。印度正面临着沉重的苦难。印度医院的氧气供应远远不足，火葬场也不堪重负。

The other crisis is more subtle. This is long covid, which is becoming apparent in rich countries like America, Britain and Israel that have largely vaccinated their way out of the pandemic, but which will affect poor ones, too. Post-covid syndrome, to give it its formal name, is a set of symptoms affecting any part of the body that persist for at least three months after a bout of covid-19. Three stand out: breathlessness, fatigue and “brain fog”. In Britain three in every five people with long covid say their usual activities are somewhat limited, and one in five says they are limited “a lot”—which often means being unable to do even a part-time, desk-based job.

另一个危机则相对难以察觉，即新冠病毒的长期并发症。这一危机正逐渐显现于美国、英国和以色列等已大规模接种疫苗，并逐渐摆脱疫情的富裕国家，但贫穷国家同样在劫难逃。它的正式名称是“新冠肺炎后遗症”，指的是新冠患者在感染后出现的一系列持续至少三个月、影响身体不同部位的症状。其中三个最为常见症状是呼吸困难、疲劳和“脑雾”。在英国，有五分之三患有新冠病毒长期并发症的患者表示自己的日常活动受到了一点限制，有五分之一的患者表示自己的日常活动严重受限——这通常意味着他们甚至无法从事兼职的文职工作。

The numbers are chilling. Half a million people in Britain have had long covid for more than six months. Their chances of full recovery are probably slim. The vast majority are in their working-age prime. At the last count (which does not fully take in the country’s second wave) 1.1% of Britain’s population had had long covid for at least three months—a group that includes 1.5% of those of working age. About 15% of Britain’s population had been infected by then. Applying this rate to global covid-19 cases, numbering an estimated 1.2bn so far, suggests that more than 80m people may already have long covid.

这些数据令人胆战心惊。英国有50万人患有新冠病毒长期并发症超过6个月了。他们完全康复的可能性很小。绝大多数患者正处于劳动年龄的黄金时期。英国的上一次统计数据（不完全包括英国的第二波疫情）显示，有1.1%的人口已患有新冠病毒长期并发症至少三个月，这其中有1.5%的人正处于劳动年龄。当时大约有15%的英国人感染新冠病毒。而全球迄今估计有12亿人口，将这一比例套用在全球新冠病例上，可能已有8000多万人患有新冠病毒长期并发症。

The costs of the condition have yet to be tallied, but they will be huge. Britain’s National Institute for Health Research found that, in 80% of sufferers, the illness affected the ability to work. Over a third said it had weighed on their finances.

这一情况的代价尚未计算出来，但总归将是巨大的。英国国家健康研究所发现，80%患者的工作能力在患病后会受到影响。超过三分之一的人表示，长期并发症给他们带来了经济压力。