2021年经济学人 全球经济迎"疫后繁荣",推高美国通胀隐忧(1)（在线收听）

Leaders

社论

Supply shortages

供应短缺

The bottleneck economy

瓶颈经济

America’s boom is increasing worries about an inflation scare

美国的繁荣引起了人们对通货膨胀的进一步担忧

The global economy is entering unfamiliar territory. After a decade of worries about inadequate demand and spending power in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, signs of insufficient supply are now emerging. A lack of goods, services and people means that red-hot demand is increasingly met slowly or not at all. There are already signs that supply bottlenecks may lead to nasty surprises which could upset the post-pandemic recovery. Nowhere are shortages more acute than in America, where a boom is under way. Consumer spending is growing by over 10% at an annual rate, as people put to work the $2trn-plus of extra savings accumulated in the past year. More stimulus is still being doled out.

全球经济正在进入一个陌生地带。自全球金融危机爆发以来，人们对需求不足和消费能力不足的担忧已持续了十年，而供应不足的迹象如今已经崭露头角。商品、服务和人力的匮乏意味着强烈需求的满足过程越来越缓慢，或根本无法满足。已经有迹象表明，供应瓶颈可能导致严重意外，从而可能扰乱疫情后的复苏。正处于繁荣时期的美国面临着最严重的短缺。消费者支出正以每年超过10%的速度增长，因为过去一年积累的超过2万亿美元的额外储蓄正在发挥作用。更多的刺激措施的救济金仍在发放。

The boom is creating two kinds of bottleneck. The first relates to supply chains. There are shortages of everything from timber to semiconductors. The cost of shipping goods from China to America has tripled. Companies have not reported supplier delays this severe in decades. In the past year many firms have cut their investment in logistics. Lockdowns have left some container ships stranded. Companies are trying to go from 0 to 60 and it shows.

经济繁荣正在造成两种瓶颈。其一是供应链瓶颈。从木材到半导体，一切物资都出现了短缺。从中国到美国的运输成本增加了两倍。几十年来，公司从未报告过如此严重的供应商运输延迟问题。在过去的一年里，许多公司削减了对物流的投资。封锁致使一些集装箱船滞留。众多公司显然正试图将物流状态从停滞转换为全速运输。

The second kind of bottleneck is in labour markets. In April America created only 266,000 jobs, many fewer than the 1m or more that had been expected. Yet job vacancies are at all-time highs, and so firms are struggling to fill positions. Economists argue over whether generous unemployment benefits are giving people a reason not to look for work. It also takes time for people to move from dying industries to growing ones.

其二是劳动力市场瓶颈。今年4月，美国仅创造了26.6万个就业岗位，远低于预期的100万个或更多。然而，职位空缺率创下了历史新高，因此各公司都在努力填补空缺。慷慨的失业救济金是否给了人们不找工作的理由，经济学家们对此争论不休。人们还需要花时间从夕阳行业转向朝阳行业。