2021年经济学人 全球经济迎"疫后繁荣",推高美国通胀隐忧(2)（在线收听）

As booming demand runs up against tight supply, inflation is in the spotlight. In April American consumer prices rose by 4.2% year on year, up from 2.6% in March. This partly reflects “base effects”: oil prices are only as high as they were in 2019, but 272% higher than in April 2020. It also reflects a genuine underlying rise in global prices. China’s factory-gate prices are rising at the fastest rate in over three years.

旺盛的需求遇到紧张的供给，使通货膨胀成为人们关注的焦点。今年4月，美国居民消费价格同比上涨4.2%，高于3月份的2.6%。这在一定程度上反映了“基准效应”：今年油价仅与2019年持平，但比2020年4月高出272%。这也反映了全球价格的上涨实质。中国的出厂价格正以三年多来最快的速度上涨。

Central banks insist that their maximal stimulus must continue for fear of jeopardising the nascent recovery. Lael Brainard, a governor of the Federal Reserve, has said that the inflation spike as the economy reopens will be “largely transitory”. Jerome Powell, the chairman, sees little reason to worry. The Fed will tolerate somewhat above-target inflation for a bit, in part because it expects prices soon to fall back. So do many forecasters.

各国央行坚持认为，必须继续实施最大规模的刺激措施，以免危及刚刚起步的复苏。美联储理事雷尔·布雷纳德曾表示，随着经济重新开放，通胀飙升将“基本上是暂时的”。美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔认为没必要担心。美联储将在一段时间内容忍略超标的通胀，部分原因是美联储预计物价很快就会回落。许多预测者也抱有同样的想法。

Yet this approach carries dangers. One is that inflation fades slowly. The supply bottlenecks of the early phase of the pandemic in 2020 cleared fast, but there is no guarantee this will happen now. Inflation expectations may also rise if people come to believe that central banks will act slowly and too late. Many companies are now discussing inflation with their investors. Bond-market traders think the Fed will be forced to act sooner than it wants. Bill Dudley, a former governor, worries that the Fed will have to raise interest rates to as high as 4.5% to cool the economy.

然而，这种做法也带来了隐患。其中一种隐患是通胀消退缓慢。2020年疫情初期的供应瓶颈很快就消除了，但现在还不能保证相同的情况还会发生。如果人们认为央行行动缓慢且运作过晚，通胀预期也可能上升。许多公司现在正与投资者讨论通货膨胀问题。债券市场交易员认为，美联储将被迫提前采取行动。前纽约联储主席比尔·达德利担心，美联储将被迫将利率上调至4.5%，以冷却经济。

This points to the danger that sharp rate rises rock markets. So far the main event has been a sell-off in tech stocks, which is manageable. Banks are well capitalised. Yet the recent implosions of Archegos, a hedge fund, and Greensill Capital, a finance firm, are a reminder of the hidden leverage in a financial system that has come to depend on low interest rates. The post-pandemic boom may not always be exciting for the right reasons.

这也表明了另一个隐患，大幅加息可能会使市场动荡。到目前为止，重大事件还只是科技股的抛售，尚在可控范围内。银行资金充足。然而，最近对冲基金Archegos爆仓和金融公司Greensill Capital申请破产提醒我们，金融体系中隐藏的杠杆依赖于低利率。出于这些合理的理由，疫情后的繁荣可能并不总是令人兴奋的。