2021年经济学人 手机大数据窥探隐私,苹果新规来帮忙(3)（在线收听）

For Facebook, which knows more about its users’ interests than about their shopping needs, Apple’s changes are more worrying. In August it warned they might reduce revenues at its Audience Network, through which it sells ads to other apps, by as much as 50%. But the Audience Network represents less than a tenth of its business. Thanks to its intimate knowledge of users, it will still be better at targeting than almost anyone else. “In a world with a lot less data, who has relatively more?” asks Brian Wieser of GroupM. The effect of GDPR was, if anything, to increase Facebook’s and Google’s market shares, he adds.

对于更了解用户兴趣而非购物需求的Facebook来说，苹果的更新愈发令人发愁。去年8月，Facebook曾警告称，其用于向其他应用程序销售广告的Audience Network的收入可能会减少50%。但Audience Network只占其业务的不到十分之一。由于对用户兴趣的深入了解，Facebook仍然会比其他任何公司更善于精准投放广告。群邑集团的布莱恩·维瑟问道：“在数据大幅减少的世界里，哪家公司能够拥有相对更多的数据呢？”他补充道，如果说GDPR真有什么效果的话，那就是增加了Facebook和谷歌的市场份额。

To improve its tracking of purchases, Facebook is moving to create a closed loop of its own. Last year it introduced Facebook Shops on its flagship social network and Instagram Shops and its sister photo-sharing app. Mark Zuckerberg, Facebook’s boss, speculated in March that “we may even be in a stronger position if Apple’s changes encourage more businesses to conduct more commerce on our platforms, by making it harder for them to use their data…outside of our platforms”.

Facebook正着手建立自己的闭环以改善对用户购买行为的跟踪。去年，Facebook在其旗舰社交网络、Instagram Shops及其姐妹版照片分享应用程序上推出了Facebook商店。Facebook老板马克?扎克伯格今年3月曾猜测，“如果苹果新规促使更多企业更难在我们的平台之外使用他们的数据，从而鼓励他们在我们的平台上开展更多的商业行为，我们甚至可能会因此处于更有利的地位。”

Not every ad platform will be able to adapt as easily. Smaller publishers with fewer data and resources will suffer, believes Nicole Perrin of eMarketer, a research firm. Publishers that rely on third-party cookies will be hit hardest. The day Apple launched its new policy, a group of German publishing companies lodged a legal complaint with Germany’s antitrust authorities. Small platforms may also find it harder to persuade phone users to trust them with their data. AppsFlyer, an ad-tech company, found that iPhone users agreed to tracking from shopping and finance apps more than 40% of the time, but 12% of the time with casual gaming apps.

并不是每个广告平台都能适应地如此游刃有余。研究公司eMarketer的妮可·佩林认为，数据和资源较少的小型出版社将受到影响。依赖于第三方cookies的出版社将损失最为惨重。在苹果推出新政策的当天，一批德国出版公司向德国反垄断当局提出了法律诉讼。小型平台可能也会发现他们难以说服手机用户授权自己的数据。广告科技公司AppsFlyer发现，超过40%的iPhone用户同意购物应用和金融应用追踪数据，但仅有12%的用户同意休闲游戏应用追踪数据。