2021年经济学人 京东,菜鸟,顺丰--中国电商物流鹿死谁手(1)（在线收听）

Business

商业版块

E-commerce logistics

电商物流

Formula races

竞争激烈程度好比方程式赛车比赛

When it comes to delivery, Chinese tech titans take divergent routes

在配送方面，中国科技巨头各辟蹊径

In 2019 RICHARD LIU told couriers working for JD.com that the Chinese e-commerce giant he founded would cancel their base pay after a 2.8bn yuan ($438m) loss the previous year, its 12th consecutive one in the red. Riders would make only a commission on deliveries. If the company did not cut back on spending, Mr Liu warned, it would go bust in two years.

2019年，刘强东对京东快递员表示，由于自己创立的中国电子商务巨头京东去年亏损了28亿元人民币（合4.38亿美元），而且已连续12年出现财政赤字，因此将取消快递员底薪制。骑手只能通过配送赚取佣金。刘强东警告称，如果公司不削减开支，两年后就会破产。

Far from collapsing, two years on JD Logistics, JD.com’s delivery division, is on a roll, fuelled by a boom in Chinese e-commerce. Its parent company’s revenues jumped by 39%, year on year, in the first quarter, to 203bn yuan. On May 26th Pinduoduo, an upstart rival that also offers customers delivery by JD Logistics couriers, reported quarterly sales of 22bn yuan, 239% higher than a year ago.

由于中国电子商务的蓬勃发展，京东物流（京东的快递部门）未来两年的业务非但没有崩溃，反而涨势如虹。第一季度，其母公司收入同比增长39%，达到2030亿元人民币。作为京东的新兴竞争对手，拼多多也同样由京东物流快递员为客户提供配送服务。拼多多于5月26日公布其季度销售额为220亿元人民币，同比增长239%。

The State Post Bureau expects logistics companies to deliver more than 100bn parcels this year, twice as many as in 2018. Overall spending on logistics in China is projected to hit 16trn yuan in 2021 and surpass 19trn yuan by 2025. That would make it the world’s largest market.

据国家邮政局预计，物流企业今年将派送1000多亿件包裹，是2018年的两倍。预计中国物流总支出2021年将达到16万亿元，到2025年将突破19万亿元，中国将因此成为世界最大的物流市场。

Domestic and foreign investors have been pouring money into the industry, say lawyers working on deals involving such businesses. JD Logistics has attracted investments from big private-equity groups such as Sequoia China and Hillhouse Capital. The market buzz around the firm is as frenetic as the pace at which its 190,000 workers fulfil and ferry orders. On May 21st it raised $3.2bn in Hong Kong’s second-largest initial public offering this year. Its shares are scheduled to begin trading on May 28th. The company’s backers are betting that its Amazon-like approach of creating a fully integrated delivery network has more mileage than a similar offering from SF Express, a stodgier incumbent similar to FedEx, or a rival model championed by Alibaba, which has plumped for a more distributed system.

从事物流业务交易方面的律师表示，国内外投资者一直在向该行业注资。京东物流已吸引了红杉中国、高瓴资本集团等大型私募股权集团的投资。京东物流引发的市场热和19万名快递员接单派货的速度一样疯狂。京东物流于5月21日在香港首次公开募股融资32亿美元，成为今年香港第二大上市公司。其股票定于5月28日开始交易。京东物流的出资人们打赌，其仿照亚马逊建立的完全一体化配送网络，相较于顺丰快递更古板的配送模式（类似于联邦快递）有更大优势，也强于全力支持分散配送的阿里巴巴所推崇的竞争模式。

JD Logistics is the only large Chinese delivery service to grow out of an e-commerce parent. It became a separate entity from JD.com in 2017, in part so that it could take orders from other online retailers. It still delivers the bulk of JD.com’s packages but a large chunk of its revenues now comes from orders outside the group. By owning much of its technology, lorries and warehouses, and directly employing staff, the firm has been able to ensure faster delivery times while monitoring quality. It operates China’s largest integrated logistics system, covering a good’s entire journey and including a fully autonomous fulfilment centre in Shanghai and driverless vehicles. The system can also flip into reverse, sending customer feedback to product designers that, JD Logistics claims, helps it produce better products and bolster brands.

京东物流是唯一一家由电子商务母公司培养起来的大型中国快递服务公司。2017年，京东物流脱离京东，成为了一个独立的实体公司，部分原因是它可以接受其他在线零售商的订单。京东物流仍然配送京东的大部分包裹，但它现在的大部分收入来自外部订单。通过拥有大量的技术、货车和仓库，以及直接雇佣员工，京东物流能够在监控质量的同时确保更快的配送时间。它运营着中国最大的一体化物流系统，涵盖了货物的整个运输过程，包括在上海的全自动订单履约中心和无人配送车。京东物流声称，该系统还可以逆向运行，将客户反馈发送给产品设计师，帮助其生产更好的产品并改善品牌。