2021年经济学人 京东,菜鸟,顺丰--中国电商物流鹿死谁手(2)（在线收听）

Contrast that with Cainiao, in which Alibaba has a controlling stake. It does not own many of the logistics assets in its network. Instead it allows around 3,000 logistics companies employing some 3m couriers to plug into its platform. Its aim is to integrate and streamline the vast delivery resources that already exist across China, rather than build its own. The company has teamed up with most large logistics services—and taken investments from them as well. Alibaba, for its part, has bought minority stakes in several large operators as a means of exerting more influence over the industry. Cainiao is not publicly listed and does not disclose many operational details or, for that matter, how exactly it makes money.

将京东物流与阿里巴巴控股的菜鸟相比较。菜鸟网络没有很多物流资产。相反，它允许约3000家物流公司雇佣的大约300万名快递员入驻其平台。其目标是整合和精简中国现有的大量配送资源，而不是建立自己的配送资源。菜鸟与大多数大型物流服务公司合作，并从中获得投资。阿里巴巴则购买了几家大型物流公司的少数股权，以此来对中国物流业施加更多影响。菜鸟没有上市，没有透露许多运营细节，也没有透露其实际的盈利方式。

In terms of revenues, both JD Logistics and Cainiao trail SFSF Express. Similarly to JD Logistics, that firm operates its own network. It still leads the market in “time-definite” delivery, a service that requires couriers to pick up and drop off parcels on a rapid, predetermined timetable. Like FedEx in America but unlike JD and Cainiao, it did not emerge from the tech industry, so lacks its rivals’ technological chops.

在收入方面，京东物流和菜鸟都比不上顺丰速递。与京东物流类似，顺丰也运营着自己的配送网络。它在送达时效性方面仍处于市场领先地位，这项服务要求快递员按照预定时间表快速接收和派送包裹。与美国联邦快递一样，但与京东和菜鸟不同的是，顺丰并不是起家于科技行业的，因此它不具备竞争对手拥有的技术实力。

Which model emerges victorious will ultimately depend on which best controls costs, thinks Eric Lin of UBS, a bank. JD Logistics may have to lower prices further as it tries to get more business beyond JD.com. Analysts predict it could lose a combined 12bn yuan over the next three years, and turn a profit only in 2024. SF Express is spending heavily to try to match JD’s and Cainiao’s tech prowess. Its share price has fallen by around half since it issued a profit warning in April; it is expected to record a net loss of at least 900m yuan in the first quarter. Jefferies, an investment bank, points to SF Express’s troubles as a clear sign of an ongoing price war.

瑞银的林育民认为，哪种模式胜出最终将取决于谁最能控制成本。京东物流可能不得不进一步降价，因为它试图发展更多外部业务。分析师预计，京东物流未来三年可能会合计亏损120亿元人民币，到2024年才能实现盈利。顺丰快递正斥巨资打造自身科技实力，以试图赶上京东和财鸟。自4月份发布盈利预警以来，顺丰公司股价已下跌约一半；预计顺丰第一季度将净亏损至少9亿元。投资银行杰弗里斯指出，顺丰面临的困境是价格战持续的明显迹象。

In the long run Cainiao’s asset-light model may enable it to keep spending in check. But for the time being it, too, is thought to be having trouble containing costs. Like its rivals it must fend off new specialist competitors offering cut-price services in areas like cold-chain and last-mile delivery. Average delivery prices in America have increased by about 5% annually in recent years, according to Bernstein, a broker. In China they have been falling at an average rate of 10% for the past decade. As China’s online shoppers get their goods ever more quickly, investors may need to brace for longer waiting times before their logistics returns finally arrive.

从长远来看，菜鸟的轻资产模式也许能够控制开支。但目前看来，人们同样认为菜鸟在控制成本方面遇到了困难。与竞争对手一样，菜鸟必须抵挡会在冷链和最后一英里配送等方面提供降价服务的新晋专业竞争对手。据经纪人伯恩斯坦称，美国近年来的平均配送价格每年增长约5%。在中国，过去十年来的平均降幅为10%。随着中国网购者的收货速度越来越快，投资者可能需要在物流收益最终到达之前等待更长的时间。