纪录片《为何无法预测地震》 第21期:地震警告（在线收听）

Chaos theory seeks to find an underlying order

混沌理论探寻的是自然界中

in some of nature's most random processes.

某些完全随机事件的内在规律

Weather systems,

气象系统

the way birds flock together,

鸟类群集的方式

or even the distribution of leaves on a tree.

甚至一棵树上的树叶分布

There didn't seem to be any order to earthquakes,

地震看似毫无规律

but Keilis-Borok

但凯列斯勃洛克

brought together scientists from multiple disciplines

召集了其他多个学科的科学家

to study the problem,

开始研究这个问题

including seismologist David Jackson.

其中包括地震学家大卫·杰克逊

Well, the general theory is that

最基本的理论是

when the earth is in a chaotic state,

当地球处于一种混沌的状态

there will be some features that can be recognised.

将产生某些可被识别的特征

And typically,

一般来说

those features are in the smaller earthquakes that occur,

这些特征存在于发生的较小地震里

and how much a small earthquake brings with it,

它又能引起多少小型地震

some immediate follow-on earthquake.

以及紧接着发生的余震呢

Looking at some of California's

通过对加利福利亚州

major earthquakes in the past,

曾经发生过的大地震的研究

the UCLA team thought that they could see patterns

加州大学小组认为 这些地震的模式

in the smaller quakes that preceded them.

可以通过先发生的小地震得出

Today, they look for similar patterns,

今天 他们寻找类似的模式

chains of small earthquakes linked

通过将小地震的震级大小和爆发时间

by their size and the time they strike.

联系在一起 形成地震链

If they think they see a new chain

一旦他们发现了和历史数据

that matches their historical data,

相匹配的新地震链

the group then issues an earthquake alarm.

小组就会发出地震警报