纪录片《为何无法预测地震》 第33期:房屋的抗震性（在线收听）

Elsewhere in Sichuan, they're rebuilding at a rapid rate.

在四川其他地区 人们正迅速重建家园

But the vast majority of these new homes

但大多数房屋的质量

won't be strong enough to survive another major earthquake.

并不足以抵抗另一次强震

For Roger Bilham, this is a problem

对罗杰·比尔汉来说 建筑质量低劣

that's endemic throughout the developing world.

是发展中国家的通病

I can go here here, here OK, where my fingers stab the map,

我可以指出这里或那里 地图上

there will be a magnitude seven earthquake within,

我手指的地方周围几英尺内

you know, a few inches of it,

都有可能会发生七级地震

in the next 30 years maybe in the next year.

未来三十年内 可能就在明年发生地震

I've made a forecast that it's possible right now

我作过一个预测 如今

for one million people to be killed by a single earthquake, ok?

一次地震就有可能夺去一百万条生命

Now, that's a terrible thing to say

这是很可怕的事情

and it's a thing that has no precedent,

而且是史无前例的

it's never happened in the past,

过去不曾发生过

why can I make such a crazy statement?

我凭什么说出如此疯狂的观点

Because there are now

因为在这条地震带上的城市

cities of eight and ten and twelve million people

史无前例地居住了高达八百万

along this earthquake belt that have never been there in the past

一千万 甚至一千二百万的人

and that knowledge is sufficient, surely, to drive those countries,

这足以让这些国家认识到

if they're responsible to mandate earthquake resistance.

加强建筑物的抗震性 他们责无旁贷

And it only costs about another 10% more.

而这只需多花百分之十的资金

What it means is...

也就是说

buying fewer guns and better concrete instead.

少买军械 多买质量上乘的混凝土