2021年经济学人 结束新冠的代价是什么?(1)（在线收听）

COVID-19

新冠病毒

The best public investment ever

有史以来最好的公共投资

What will it cost to end the pandemic?

结束新冠的代价是什么？

On may 2nd thousands of masked nurses, doctors and others who have battled against covid-19 watched Jennifer Lopez and other stars perform in the flesh at the "vax live" concert in Los Angeles. Outside the venue, visitors could get their jab from the comfort of their own vehicles, while watching H.E.R., a singer-songwriter, perform the song "Glory" in the car park, surrounded by schoolkids stomping their feet. A live concert was possible only because many Americans (50% of adults) are now vaccinated. But a charity event of this kind was necessary only because most of the world is not.

5月2日，数千名戴着口罩的护士、医生和其他抗击新冠的人员在洛杉矶观看了詹妮弗·洛佩兹和其他明星在“VAX直播”演唱会上的现场演出。会场外，游客们可以坐在自己的车里舒服地观看歌手兼词曲作家H.E.R.在停车场里演唱《荣耀》(Glory)，周围全是跺着脚的小学生。现场音乐会之所以能够举办，是因为许多美国人(50%的成年人)现在已经接种了疫苗。而这样的慈善活动之所以是必要的，只是因为它在世界上大多数地方都不是必要的。

What would it take to close the gap? In a paper published in April, Ruchir Agarwal of the IMF and Tristan Reed of the World Bank argued that it might be possible to end the "acute phase" of the pandemic early next year by vaccinating 60% of the population of every country. Will there be enough shots to go round In principle, yes. According to Airfinity, a life-sciences data firm, vaccine-makers could produce as many as 11.1bn doses this year, enough to inoculate more than 75% of the world's population aged over five. The manufacturers themselves say they will produce many more.

怎样才能缩小这一差距？在四月发表的一篇论文中，来自国际货币基金组织的鲁奇尔·阿加瓦尔和来自世界银行的特里斯坦·里德认为，通过给每个国家60%的人口接种疫苗，明年年初新冠大流行的“急性阶段”就有可能结束。疫苗够分发吗？原则上是够的。根据生命科学数据机构Airfinity的数据，疫苗制造商今年可以生产多达111亿剂疫苗，足以为全球75%以上的老年人口接种疫苗。制造商自己说他们会生产更多疫苗。

Some of this capacity is already spoken for. But rich countries have hogged less of it than many people fear. Mr Agarwal and Mr Reed calculate that rich countries have placed advance orders for about 2bn courses (many of which comprise two shots). At the same time, the developing world already has dibs on more vaccines than some people assume, thanks to deals struck by organisations like the African Union and COVAX, a vaccine-sharing initiative. Mr Agarwal and Mr Reed calculate that 91 developing countries (with a combined population of over 2.5bn people) need to order only another 350m courses between them to vaccinate 60% of their population. India faces a bigger shortfall. But it also has the dollars and domestic manufacturing capacity to reach the target eventually.

其中一些配额已经被指定了。但是，发达国家并没有像许多人担心的那样抢占资源。据阿加瓦尔和里德计算，发达国家已经预订了大约20亿剂疫苗(其中大多是两针剂)。与此同时，由于非洲联盟和COVAX(疫苗共享计划)等组织达成的协议，发展中国家已经拥有了比一些人想象中的更多的疫苗。阿加瓦尔和里德计算出91个发展中国家(人口总数超过25亿)只需再订购3.5亿种疫苗就可以为60%的人口接种疫苗。印度面临着更大的缺口，但中国也有足够的资金和国内制造能力来最终实现这一目标。