2021年经济学人 电脑芯片(1)（在线收听）

Computer chips

电脑芯片

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The global chip shortage is here for some time

全球芯片短缺将持续一段时间

FOR WANT of a chip, the factory was lost. On May 18th Toyota became the latest carmaker forced to cut production amid a global shortage of microchips, announcing it would suspend work at two of its plants in Japan. Firms including Ford, General Motors and Jaguar Land Rover have also had to send workers home.

芯片不够了，工厂一筹莫展。5月18日，在全球微芯片短缺之际，丰田成为最新一家被迫减产的汽车制造商，宣布将让日本的两家工厂停工。福特、通用汽车和捷豹路虎等公司此前也已不得不先让工人回家。

The pain is not confined to the car industry, for the shortage spans all sorts of chips, from the expensive, high-tech devices that power smartphones and data centres to the simple sensors and microcontrollers that have become a vital commodity, scattered across everything from cars to washing machines, and often costing just a few cents each. In the past few weeks companies including Foxconn, Nintendo and Samsung have warned of hits to production, affecting everything from smartphones and games consoles to televisions and home broadband routers.

头痛的不止汽车产业，因为这次短缺涉及各类芯片，从驱动智能手机和数据中心的昂贵高科技设备，到已成为重要日常用品的简单传感器和微控制器。后者广泛应用于汽车和洗衣机等各种产品，单个成本往往仅需几美分。过去几周，包括富士康、任天堂和三星在内的公司都发出了生产受到冲击的警告，从智能手机、游戏机，到电视和家庭宽带路由器的各种商品都会受影响。

Governments are worried. America's called a summit in April; another is due on May 20th. Germany's finance minister has written to the government of Taiwan, where many chipmakers are based, lobbying for priority for carmakers. A report from Gavekal Research, a consultancy, published on May 4th, said the shortage might soon hit export performance in several East Asian economies. But there is little that ministers can do. The chip drought is the result of the covid-19 pandemic interacting with an industry that is notoriously prone to cycles of boom and bust. It is likely to persist for months, if not years.

各国政府感到担忧。美国在4月召开了一场峰会，5月20日又举行了一场。德国财政部长已向众多芯片制造商所在的台湾地区的政府致函，游说其优先为汽车制造商供应芯片。咨询公司龙洲经讯在5月4日发布的一份报告称，芯片短缺可能很快会影响几个东亚经济体的出口表现。但部长们对此也束手无策。这次芯片短缺是新冠疫情和一个以兴衰周期闻名的行业相互作用的结果。它很可能会持续数月，甚至数年。

"The most important thing (to recognise)", says Malcolm Penn, who runs Future Horizons, a chip-industry consultancy, "is that shortages are a natural part of the industry." Chipmaking, he says, is a good example of what economists call a "pork-cycle" business, named for the regular swings between under-and over-supply first analysed in American pork markets in the 1920s. As with pigs, the supply of chips cannot quickly react to changes in demand. Capacity was tight even before the pandemic, says Mr Penn, pointing out that investment by chipmakers in factory equipment has been below its long-term average for many years.

芯片业咨询公司Future Horizons的老板马尔科姆·佩恩说，“(需要认识到的)最重要的一点是，短缺是这个行业的一个自然组成部分。”他说，芯片制造是经济学家称之为“猪周期”生意的一个很好的例子。上世纪20年代，经济学家首度分析了美国猪肉市场供应不足与供应过剩之间的规律性波动，这个名词由此而来。和猪肉的供应一样，芯片供应无法对需求的变化迅速作出反应。佩恩说，即使在疫情之前，产能也很紧张。他指出，芯片制造商对工厂设备的投资多年来一直低于其长期平均水平。