2021年经济学人 绿色投资繁荣下的世界隐忧(1)（在线收听）

Leaders

社论

Bunged up

遇到瓶颈

A great green investment boom is under way. Bottlenecks are an underappreciated problem

一场巨大的绿色投资热潮正在兴起，但瓶颈问题却未受到重视。

AS THE WORLD economy wakes back up, shortages and price spikes are affecting everything from the supply of Taiwanese chips to the cost of a French breakfast. As we explain this week, one kind of bottleneck deserves special attention: the supply-side problems, such as scarce metals and land constraints, that threaten to slow the green-energy boom. Far from being transitory, these bottlenecks risk becoming a recurring feature of the world economy for years to come because the shift to a cleaner energy system is still only in its infancy. Governments must respond to these market signals, facilitating a huge private-sector investment boom over the next decade that increases capacity. If they don’t, they stand little chance of keeping their promises to reach “net-zero” emissions.

伴随世界经济复苏，短缺和价格飙升正在影响着方方面面，包括台湾薯片供应和法式早餐成本。正如我们本周所解释的，有一种瓶颈值得特别关注，即稀有金属和土地制约等供给侧问题，这类问题有可能造成绿色能源繁荣的减缓。这些瓶颈远非转瞬即逝，而是有可能成为世界经济在未来几年反复出现的特征，因为向清洁能源体系的转型还只是刚刚起步。各国政府必须对这些市场信号作出反应，在未来十年中推动私企的巨大投资热潮，从而提高产能。否则，他们就很难兑现“净零”排放的承诺。

Scientists and activists have worried about climate change for decades. Recently politicians have shown signs of more commitment: countries accounting for over 70% of world GDP and greenhouse gases now have targets for net-zero emissions, typically by 2050. And there has been a dramatic shift in the attitude of business. Investors are demanding that firms change tack, spurred by the new reality that clean technologies are more cost-competitive. The giants of the fossil-fuel age, such as Volkswagen and ExxonMobil, are having to shift their investment plans, while clean-energy pioneers are cranking up capital spending fast. Orsted, a wind-farm champion, plans a rise of 30% this year; Tesla, an electric-car maker, a jump of 62%. Meanwhile a cool $178bn flowed into green-tinged investment funds in the first quarter of 2021.

几十年来，科学家和活动家一直担心气候变化。最近，政客们也表现出要做出更多努力的迹象：占世界GDP和温室气体排放量70%以上的国家通常制定了到2050年实现净零排放的目标。商界的态度也发生了巨大转变。在清洁技术更具成本竞争力这一新现实的刺激下，投资者纷纷要求企业改变策略。大众和埃克森美孚等化石燃料时代的巨头不得不改变他们的投资计划，而清洁能源的先驱们正在快速增加资本支出。风电大厂沃旭能源计划今年将增加30%的资本支出；电动汽车制造商特斯拉今年将增加62%的资本支出。与此同时，在2021年第一季度，有1780亿美元的资金流入了绿色投资基金。