2021年经济学人 绿色投资繁荣下的世界隐忧(3)（在线收听）

The figures for the coming decade are mind-concentrating. To stay on track for net zero, by 2030 annual production of electric vehicles needs to be ten times higher than it was last year and the number of roadside charging stations 31 times bigger. The installed base of renewable-power generation needs to rise three-fold. Global mining firms may have to raise the annual production of critical minerals by 500%. Perhaps 2% of America’s land will have to be blanketed in turbines and solar panels.

未来十年的数据值得关注。为了实现净零排放，到2030年，电动汽车的年产量需要比去年增长10倍，路边充电站的数量也要增长31倍。可再生能源发电的装机规模需要增加三倍。全球矿业公司可能不得不将关键矿产的年产量提高500%。也许美国2%的土地将被涡轮机和太阳能板覆盖。

All this will require vast investment: some $35trn over the next decade, equivalent to a third of the global fund-management industry’s assets today. The system best equipped to deliver this is the network of cross-border supply chains and capital markets that has revolutionised the world since the 1990s. Yet even this system is underdelivering, with energy investment running at about half the level required, and skewed towards a few rich countries and China. Despite soaring metals prices, for example, mining firms are wary of boosting supply.

所有这些都需要巨额投资：在未来十年内将需要投资约35万亿美元，相当于目前全球基金管理业资产的三分之一。最有能力实现这一目标的系统是跨境供应链和资本市场网络，自20世纪90年代以来，这一网络已经彻底改变了世界。然而，就连这一系统也难以发挥应有的作用，能源投资只达到所需水平的一半左右，而且主要流入少数富裕国家和中国。例如，尽管金属价格飙升，但矿业公司对增加供应持谨慎态度。

The main reason for the investment shortfall is that it takes too long to get projects approved and their expected risk and returns are still too opaque. Governments are making things worse by using climate policy as a vehicle for other political objectives. The European Union aspires to strategic autonomy in batteries and its green agenda directs a chunk of its budget to deprived areas. Similarly, President Joe Biden’s nascent green plan prioritises union jobs and local manufacturers. This mix of blurred goals and soft protectionism hobbles the necessary investment.

投资缺口的主要原因是项目审批时间过长，其预期风险和回报率的透明度仍然太差。政府利用气候政策作为实现其他政治目标的工具，使情况雪上加霜。欧盟渴望实现电池的战略自主，其绿色议程将其预算的一大部分用于贫困地区。同样，拜登总统刚刚起步的绿色计划也将工会工作和本土制造商列为优先事项。模糊的目标和温和护主义阻碍了必要的投资。