2021年经济学人 通胀“恶魔降临”,美国企业发出警报(4)（在线收听）

Despite a willingness to pay workers more, many firms are having trouble filling vacancies. Nearly half of American companies complain that they are finding it difficult to fill one or more jobs. “It is hard to tell how much it costs to hire someone because you can’t find anyone,” sighs Mr Goldman. His “help wanted” ads often go unanswered; many of those who respond fail to turn up for interviews. Given Americans’ apparent reluctance to get back to work, whether because of continued fears of covid-19, generous unemployment insurance, or both, wages may have further to rise.

尽管许多公司愿意给员工加薪，但他们还是难以填补职位空缺。近一半的美国公司发出抱怨，他们发现很难填补一个或多个职位。“很难说雇佣一个人要花多少钱，因为你找不到任何人，”戈德曼感叹道。他的“招聘广告”经常得不到回应；很多回复的人也没有来面试。鉴于美国人显然不愿重返工作岗位，无论是因为继续担心会感染新冠、还是因为慷慨的失业保险，或者两者兼而有之，工资可能还会进一步上涨。

If inflation does prove stickier, some companies will contemplate shifting production to places with more plentiful and cheaper labour. All three firms advised by Mr Tayur, for example, are pondering whether and where to move, within America and farther afield. Others may want to get rid of human workers altogether. America Inc has ramped up business investment by 15% this year. Part of this is going towards automation, and not just in manufacturing. Erik Gordon of the University of Michigan’s Ross School of Business points to restaurant chains, some of which are installing automatic grills and developing apps that enable diners to place orders remotely rather than at the counter, which allows fewer staff to focus on making and serving food. As hotels reopen, robot floor-cleaners are becoming more common.

如果事实证明，通胀确实更加棘手，一些公司将考虑将生产转移到劳动力更充足且更廉价的地方。例如，塔尤尔提供咨询服务的这三家公司都在考虑是否以及向何处迁移，是在美国国内还是更远的地方。其他公司可能想彻底摆脱人类工人。美国公司今年增加了15%的商业投资。其中部分投资注入了自动化，而不仅仅是在制造业。密歇根大学罗斯商学院的瑞克·戈登指出连锁餐厅的现状，其中一些店正在安装自动烤架并开发使食客能够脱离柜台、远程点餐的应用程序，以此提高员工对制作食物和上餐的专注度。随着酒店重新开业，机器人地板清洁工也越来越普遍。

Many such productivity-boosting investments make good business sense even in a low-inflation world. That is the outcome which many chief executives will still be hoping for. It is certainly what policymakers are banking on. In the 1980s the Securities and Exchange Commission required companies to publish balance-sheets and income statements both in nominal terms and adjusted for inflation. This requirement has been watered down over the years. In November the markets regulator appears to have all but binned the last explicit vestige of it. It would be ironic if this now proved premature.

即使在低通胀的世界里，许多这样提高生产率的投资也有很好的商业意义。这是许多首席执行官仍然希望看到的结果。这无疑是决策者所指望的。在20世纪80年代，美国证券交易委员会要求公司公布资产负债表和损益表，包括名义值和通货膨胀调整值。多年来，这一要求已被简化。去年11月，市场监管机构似乎已经将该要求的最后一个明显痕迹全部抹去。如果现在证明这一点为时过早，那就太讽刺了。