2021年经济学人 商用飞机之突破音障--尚需时日(2)（在线收听）

Mockups of the cabin look suitably plush.

机舱模型看起来非常奢华。

UBS, a bank, thinks supersonic travel has a future.

瑞士联合银行认为超音速旅行的前景一片大好。

It puts the cumulative size of the market at between $80bn and $280bn by 2040,

它预计，到2040年该市场的累计规模在800亿至2800亿美元之间，

depending on regulatory hurdles and whether the planes are delivered on time, on budget and operate as promised.

具体仍然取决于监管障碍以及飞机是否按时、按预算交付和按预期运营。

Mr Scholl is eyeing the upper end of that range, a potential market for 1,200 Overture 1s at $200m each.

肖尔关注的是这一预测区间的上限，这一潜在的市场能够消费1200架每架费用为2亿美元的“1号序曲”。

Then he hopes to make progressively bigger craft offering lower fares and higher speeds.

之后，他希望慢慢造出更大的飞机，提供更低的价格，和更快的速度。

Spike, another American firm with supersonic ambitions, is developing an 18-seat business jet that doesn’t make a loud boom.

另一家有超音速野心的美国公司Spike正在开发一种18座的低音爆的公务机。

Is this pie in the sky? A distant caveat-strewn commitment is good publicity for United and for Boom when it seeks more funding.

这会是纸上谈兵吗？对美联航和寻求更多融资的Boom公司来说，一个兑现无期的许诺加上时不时发布警告饶是不错的宣传方式。

It is unlikely that much cash has yet changed hands.

目前还不太可能有大量现金交易。

Overture 1 is not set to enter service until 2029.

“1号序曲”要到2029年才开始投入使用。

Aerion, another firm that hoped to build an 8-10-seat business jet,

另一家Aerion公司希望打造一款8座到10座的公务机，

unexpectedly folded in May despite orders worth more than $11bn and backing from Boeing, America’s giant aeroplane-maker.

尽管获得了超过110亿美元的订单和美国飞机制造巨头波音的支持，但该公司却在5月倒闭了。

National regulations banning supersonic speeds over land rule out trips across North America, home to lots of business travellers and most of the world’s business jets.

美国法规禁止在境内超音速飞行，这就排除了穿越北美航行的可能性，而北美是众多商务旅行者和世界上大多数公务机的所在地。

Morgan Stanley, a bank, reckons that at $120m, double the price of a similar subsonic plane,

摩根士丹利银行认为，1.2亿美元的公务机价格是同类亚音速飞机价格的两倍，

even the ultra-rich wouldn’t pay to cut four hours from a transatlantic trip.

即使是超级富豪也不愿斥巨资只为跨大西洋的行程缩短四个小时。

Tellingly, Boeing itself has no plans to go supersonic.

从波音没有推出超音速飞机计划可见一斑。

Nor has Airbus, its European arch-rival (which was involved in the Concorde project).

它的欧洲头号竞争对手空中客车公司（参与过协和式客机项目）也没有任何动作。

The passenger-jet duopoly reckons that cheaper and cleaner flying is more important than speed.

垄断了喷气式客机的两巨头认为，更便宜、更清洁的飞行比速度更重要。

Breaking the sound barrier is still some way off for the ordinary punter.

对于普通旅行者来说，突破音障尚需时日。