2021年经济学人 阿联酋闹“分手”,OPEC$#$会散伙吗?(1)（在线收听）

Finance & economics

财经板块

Oil markets

石油市场

Division over the spoils

瓜分战利品

The latest rift within OPEC is a sign of things to come

石油输出国组织内部的最新裂痕是事态发展的一个信号

It is rare for spats about oil supply to break out between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The countries' views on output usually align.

沙特阿拉伯和阿拉伯联合酋长国(UAE)之间很少发生关于石油供应的争吵。这些国家对产出的看法通常是一致的。

Traders and analysts regard them, along with Kuwait, as the core of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

交易员和分析师认为他们和科威特一样是石油输出国组织(OPEC)的核心。

So eyebrows were raised in early July when Suhail Al Mazrouei, the UAE's energy minister, told reporters that OPEC's quotas were "totally unfair".

因此，当阿联酋能源部长Suhail Al Mazrouei于7月初告诉记者欧佩克的配额“非常不公平”时，人们扬起了眉毛。

A further surprise came on July 5th when meetings between the cartel and its allies (notably Russia), together known as OPEC+, were abandoned because of the row.

7月5日，更令人惊讶的是，该组织与其盟国(尤其是俄罗斯)的会议因为争吵而被放弃。

The price of the benchmark Brent crude rose above $77 a barrel for the first time in more than two years, before dropping back below $75; that of American crude briefly hit a six-year high.

基准布伦特原油价格两年多来首次升至每桶77美元以上，之后又回落至每桶75美元以下。美国原油价格一度创下六年新高。

OPEC+ introduced swingeing production cuts last spring as covid-19 began to spread, the demand for fuel tanked and the oil price collapsed to below $30 per barrel.

去年春天，随着新冠疫情开始蔓延，燃油需求急剧增加，油价跌至每桶30美元以下，欧佩克+开始大幅减产。

More recently the cartel has been carefully increasing supply as demand has revived and oil prices have recovered.

最近，随着需求复苏和油价回升，欧佩克一直在谨慎地增加供应。

The cancelled meeting had been convened with the goal of agreeing on further increases to output after July.

这次被取消的会议的目的是就7月以后进一步增产达成一致。

At the same time the Saudis and others were also seeking to extend the current regime for assigning cuts to members' production.

与此同时，沙特和其他国家也在寻求延长现有的削减成员国石油产量的机制。

But the UAE wants the quotas, which are based on countries' oil-producing potential in October 2018, to be revised.

但阿联酋希望修改配额，该配额是基于2018年10月各国的石油生产潜力。

Its supply capacity has grown by almost a fifth since then, thanks to heavy investment.

自那以来，由于大量投资，其供应能力增长了近五分之一。

A third of its production is now sitting idle—a greater share than in any other OPEC+ country.

三分之一的石油产量目前处于闲置状态，这一比例比任何其他欧佩克+国家都要高。

Other members, in particular Saudi Arabia, are reluctant to see production rise too much, however.

然而，其他成员国，尤其是沙特阿拉伯，不愿看到产量增长太多。

That is partly because giving way on quotas could mean that countries such as Russia startto make similar demands.

这在一定程度上是因为，在配额方面做出让步可能意味着俄罗斯等国开始提出类似的要求。

But it could also reflect the Saudis' desire to avoid overproduction at a time when non-OPEC producers may expand supply, too.

但这也可能反映出在非欧佩克产油国可能扩大供应之际沙特希望避免生产过剩。

The usual suspects would have been America's shale producers, who in the past have often increased output when oil prices rise.

通常的怀疑对象是美国的页岩气生产商，他们过去经常在油价上涨时增加产量。

This time may be different, though. The industry is trying to change its ways, promising to keep a tight rein on oil output,restrain investment and return cash to shareholders.

不过这一次可能有所不同。石油行业正试图改变现状，承诺严格控制石油产量，限制投资，并向股东返还现金。