2021年经济学人 欧洲央行的新目标(2)（在线收听）

For a start, the strategy seems to mean different things to different ratesetters.

首先，对于不同的利率制定者来说，这一策略似乎有不同的含义。

Jens Weidmann, the hawkish head of the Bundesbank and a member of the ECB's governing council, took pains to point out that although inflation might deviate from the target temporarily, the ECB would not aim to exceed it.

德国央行(Bundesbank)鹰派主席、欧洲央行管理委员会成员延斯·魏德曼曾极力表示，尽管通胀可能会暂时偏离目标，但欧洲央行不会试图超过这一目标。

That is in contrast to America's Federal Reserve, which also recently revised its target.

这与美联储形成了鲜明对比，后者最近也修订了其目标。

It plans to aim for inflation of 2% on average, tolerating a period of overshooting in order to make up for past shortfalls.

它计划以平均2%的通胀率为目标，为了弥补过去的不足，容忍一段时间的过度通胀。

But Olli Rehn, the doveish governor of Finland's central bank, said on July 9th that he expected the ECB's response to a shock to be quite similar to that of the Fed.

但是芬兰中央银行的鸽派行长奥利·雷恩于7月9日表示，他预计欧洲央行对冲击的反应将与美联储相当相似。

The different views might explain why, although Ms Lagarde promised that the bank's next monetary-policy meeting on July 22nd would clarify what the new target means for policy, few analysts are expecting big changes.

尽管拉加德女士承诺将于7月22日召开的银行下次货币政策会议将阐明新目标对政策来说意味着什么，但分析师预计变化不会很大，不同的观点或许可以解释其中的原因。

(The ECB is currently buying 80bn euros, or $95bn, in government and corporate bonds a month.)

(欧洲央行目前每月购买800亿欧元(合950亿美元)的政府和公司债券。)

Economists at Barclays, a bank, reckon that the review should have no effect on the near-term path for monetary policy, and that the ECB would continue to support the euro area by buying bonds.

巴克莱银行的经济学家认为，这次评估对近期的货币政策不会有任何影响，欧洲央行将继续通过购买债券来支持欧元区。

Analysts at Morgan Stanley, another bank, predict that the ECB might bring forward an announcement to phase out its pandemic-related asset-purchase scheme, but beef up an older purchase programme instead.

另一家银行摩根士丹利的分析师预测，欧洲央行可能会宣布逐步取消与新冠病毒相关的资产购买计划，转而加强一项旧的购买计划。

Without big changes, it is hard to see how the ECB can do a better job of hitting its target.

如果没有大的改变，那么很难看出欧洲央行如何能更好地实现其目标。

In June a range of economic forecasters, including those at the central bank, projected inflation to be in the region of 1.4-1.5% in 2023.

今年6月，包括央行在内的一系列经济预测人士预计2023年的通胀率将在1.4-1.5%左右。

If it is to successfully convince investors and households that it means business, then the bank will have to explain why, when it does not expect even to meet its old target, it should suddenly be able to hit its new one.

如果它想成功说服投资者和家庭相信它是认真的，那么它就必须解释为什么在连旧目标都达不到的情况下突然就能实现新目标了。