美国国家公共电台 NPR 朝鲜成功试射远程巡航导弹（在线收听）

What signal might North Korea have been sending this weekend when it launched a number of long-range cruise missiles, the first missile test in six months?

上周末，朝鲜发射了数枚远程巡航导弹，这是该国六个月来的首次导弹试验，这可能发出了什么信号？

North Korea's state news agency KCNA says they hit targets more than 900 miles away and also suggested the missiles could be fitted with nuclear warheads,

朝鲜国家通讯社朝中社表示，导弹击中了900多英里以外的目标，并暗示这些导弹可以搭载核弹头，

although it's not clear Pyongyang has the ability to do that yet.

尽管目前尚不清楚朝鲜是否有能力这样做。

For some analysis, let's bring in Jean Lee, North Korea expert at the Wilson Center. Hi there.

为了进行分析，我们请来了威尔逊中心的朝鲜问题专家吉恩·李。你好。

Hi.

你好。

So what is your first reaction to word of this weekend's missile tests?

你对上周末导弹试射的的第一反应是什么？

Not surprised. It was such a cleverly calculated test by the North Koreans.

并不意外。这是朝鲜精心策划的一次试射。

Every test of missile technology gets North Korea closer to expanding its arsenal.

每一次导弹技术试验都使朝鲜更接近于扩大其武器库。

But this one, a cruise missile test, isn't technically banned by the U.N. Security Council. It was very strategically timed.

但这次巡航导弹试验，严格来说并没有被联合国安理会禁止。这在时间安排上来说非常有战略性。

It was a kind of reminder to not only the world but primarily the United States, the Biden administration as well as South Korea, China and Japan

这是一种提醒，不仅是在提醒世界，而且主要在提醒美国、拜登政府以及韩国、中国和日本，

because their envoys and their foreign ministers are meeting in the region.

因为这些国家的特使和外交部长正在该地区举行会谈。

So I think it was a reminder that, hey; you may be distracted with Afghanistan, with COVID-19, with your domestic issues.

因此我认为这是一个提醒，嘿；你们可能会因为阿富汗、新冠肺炎、国内问题而分心。

But don't forget we're still building weapons, and they are getting more and more threatening. So when you get together to talk, give this some thought.

但别忘了我们仍在制造武器，而且这些武器的威胁越来越大。在你们聚在一起会谈时，考虑一下这个问题。

You're reminding me of an interview I did this summer with the director of the CIA, Bill Burns.

你的话让我想起了今年夏天我对中央情报局局长比尔·伯恩斯进行的采访。

I asked him about North Korea and said, they've been out of the headlines,

我问了他有关朝鲜的问题，他表示，朝鲜已不在头条新闻中，

but is there any doubt that they are continuing to build up both the missile program and their nuclear arsenal?

至于该国是否还在建设导弹项目和核武库，这有什么疑问吗？

He said zero, no doubt at all. It sounds like you agree.

他说没有，完全没有疑问。听起来你同意这一点。

That's absolutely right.

完全正确。

It may seem to us here in the United States that they've been quiet, but I have no doubt that they have continuously been working on that nuclear program.

在我们美国人看来，朝鲜似乎一直很安静，但我毫不怀疑，他们一直在发展核项目。

And if and when they do get to nuclear negotiations again — and I do believe Kim Jong Un does want to — that they will be in a stronger position.

如果他们再次进行核谈判——我认为金正恩确实希望这样做——他们将处于更有利的地位。

And so each of these tests marks a step toward expanding that arsenal and strengthening their position.

因此，每一次试射都标志着朝鲜向扩大武器库和巩固其地位迈出的一步。

Now, as you know, understanding what's happening in North Korea from here in the U.S. is always a challenge,

如你所知，从美国了解朝鲜正在发生的事情一直是一个挑战，

I gather even more so now because during the pandemic, they have sealed their borders.

我想现在更是如此，因为朝鲜在疫情期间封锁了边境。

So we know even less than usual about the world's most secretive regime.

因此，我们对这个世界上最神密政权的了解甚至比以往更少。

I can't think of a time when we've known less about what's happening inside North Korea because they've sealed the borders since January 2020.

因为朝鲜从2020年1月开始封锁边境，我认为现在可以说是我们对朝鲜国内发生的事情了解得最少的时候。

And that means not only are people not getting in and out, people who can tell us what's actually happening on the ground.

这意味着不仅可以告知我们该国国内情况的人员不能进出。

But goods and aid and food are not getting in and out.

而且货物、援助和食品也无法进出。

And so we rely more than ever on the state media from North Korea, which means they control and shape the narrative.

因此，我们比以往任何时候都更加依赖朝鲜的国家媒体，这意味着他们控制和塑造了叙事。

So I do think that the regime has other reasons for why they want to seal the border.

因此，我确实认为该政权想封锁边境还有其他原因。

It's supposed to protect the country against the arrival of the pandemic, but I also think that they're using the pandemic for a certain type of propaganda.

封锁边境应该是为了保护该国不受疫情影响，但我同时认为他们也是在利用疫情进行某种形式的宣传。

They're very good at painting a picture of these external forces out to get them, and the pandemic is another external force.

朝鲜非常擅长描绘这些外部力量的图景，而疫情是另一种外部力量。

And so they've been using it to try to bring the people together, try to rationalize the economic hardship and for Kim Jong Un to step forward and say, I'm protecting you.

因此他们一直在利用这一点，试图将人民团结起来，使经济困难合理化，让金正恩站出来表示，我在保护你们。

This is another way, in addition to nuclear weapons, that I'm protecting you.

除了核武器，这是我保护你们的另一种方式。

Jean Lee, thank you.

吉恩·李，谢谢你。

Thank you so much for having me.

非常感谢你们邀请我。

She's a senior fellow at the Wilson Center.

她是威尔逊中心的高级研究员。