2021年经济学人 气候变化会否触发金融危机?(1)（在线收听）

Finance & economics

财经板块

Climate risk

气候风险

Could climate change trigger a financial crisis?

气候变化会否触发金融危机？

IN RECENT YEARS regulators have begun warning about the threat that climate change poses to the stability of the financial system.

近年来，监管机构已经开始就气候变化对金融体系的稳定性构成的威胁发出警告。

Following its strategy review in July, the European Central Bank (or ECB) will assemble a “climate change action plan”.

继7月份的战略评估之后，欧洲央行(ECB)将制定一项“气候变化行动计划”。

Mark Carney, the former governor of the Bank of England, warned of financial risks from climate change as long ago as 2015.

英国央行(Bank of England)前行长马克·卡尼(Mark Carney)早在2015年就警告过气候变化带来的金融风险。

In America the Commodity Futures Trading Commission last year published a 200-page report beginning “Climate change poses a major risk to the stability of the US financial system.”

去年，美国商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)发布了一份200页的报告，其开头是“气候变化对美国金融体系的稳定性构成重大风险”。

But progressive Democratic politicians are calling on President Joe Biden not to reappoint Jerome Powell as the chairman of the Federal Reserve, partly because they think he has done too little to eliminate climate risk.

但先进的民主党政客们呼吁乔·拜登总统不要再次任命杰罗姆·鲍威尔为美联储主席，部分原因是他们认为鲍威尔在消除气候风险方面做得远远不够。

Just how damaging does climate risk stand to be, though?

然而，气候风险到底有多大的破坏性呢?

Early stress tests by central banks and disclosures of companies are starting to shed light on the question.

各国央行进行的早期压力测试和企业披露的信息让这个问题初现端倪。

For the most part, the evidence that it could bring down the financial system is underwhelming.

一般来讲，它在拖垮金融体系方面并没有那么大的威力。

But a lot hangs on whether governments set out a clear path for reducing emissions, such as through carbon taxes and energy-efficiency standards, giving banks enough time to prepare.

但很多问题取决于政府是否制定了明确的减排路径，比如实施碳税和能源效率标准，给银行足够的时间去做好准备。

Climate change can affect the financial system in three ways.

气候变化可以从三个方面影响金融体系。

The first is through what regulators describe as “transition risks”.

第一个是通过监管机构所谓的“转型风险”。

These are most likely to arise if governments pursue tougher climate policies.

如果政府采取更严厉的气候政策，就最有可能出现这些问题。

If they do, the economy restructures: capital moves away from dirty sectors and towards cleaner ones.

若真如此，经济就会重组：资本会从污染严重的行业转移到清洁行业。

Companies in polluting industries may default on loans or bonds; their share prices may collapse.

污染行业的公司可能会拖欠贷款或债券；它们的股价可能会暴跌。