2021年经济学人 气候变化会否触发金融危机?(3)（在线收听）

The value of financial assets exposed to transition risk is potentially very large.

暴露在转型风险之下的金融资产的价值可能非常大。

According to Carbon Tracker, a climate think-tank, around $18trn of global equities, $8trn of bonds and perhaps $30trn of unlisted debt are linked to high-emitting sectors of the economy.

根据气候智库“碳追踪”(Carbon Tracker)的数据，全球约18万亿美元的股票、8万亿美元的债券，或许还有30万亿美元的未上市债券，都与经济中的高排放行业有关。

That compares with the $1trn market for collateralised debt obligations (or CDOs) in 2007, which were at the heart of the global financial crisis.

这与2007年1万亿美元的债务抵押债券(CDO)市场形成了鲜明对比，后者是全球金融危机的核心。

The impact of losses, however, would depend on who owns the assets.

然而，损失产生的影响将取决于谁拥有这些资产。

Regulators might be especially concerned about the exposures of large, “systemically important” banks and insurers, for instance.

例如，监管机构可能特别关注“具有系统重要性”的大型银行和保险公司的风险敞口。

Preliminary stress tests conducted by central banks suggest that the impact of climate change on these sorts of institutions might be manageable.

央行进行的初步压力测试表明，气候变化对这类机构的影响或许可控。

In April the Banque de France (or BdF) released the results from such an exercise.

今年4月，法国央行(Banque de France，简称BdF)公布了测试结果。

It found that French banks’ exposures to transition risks were low.

报告发现，法国银行的转型风险敞口很低。

Claims on insurers, though, did rise as a result of worse droughts and flooding, by more than five times in some regions.

然而，更严重的干旱和洪水导致保险公司给付的保险金有所增加，某些地区甚至增加了五倍以上。

In a recent paper the ECB and the European Systemic Risk Board found similar results.

在最近的一份报告中，欧洲央行和欧洲系统风险委员会(European Systemic Risk Board)发现了类似的结果。

The exposures of euro-area banks and insurers to the highest-emitting sectors were “limited”, although losses in a “hot-house world” scenario where temperatures rise by 3.5°C compared with pre-industrial times were more severe.

欧元区银行和保险公司对高排放行业的风险敞口“有限”，尽管它们在“温室世界”(温度比工业化前高3.5摄氏度)的情况下损失更严重。

Still, in both cases, banks’ losses on their corporate loan books were only around half the level of those in the regular stress tests of euro-area lenders, which they were deemed to be well-capitalised enough to pass.

尽管如此，在这两种情况下，银行在公司贷款账簿上的损失仅为欧元区银行定期压力测试水平结果的一半左右，但人们往往认为欧元区银行资金充足，更能通过压力测试。

Those findings are consistent with an exercise by the Dutch central bank (or DNB) in 2018, which found that the impact on Dutch financial firms from transition risks was “manageable”.

这些发现与荷兰央行(DNB) 2018年的一项研究一致，该研究发现转型风险对荷兰金融企业的影响是“可控的”。