2021年经济学人 气候变化会否触发金融危机?(4)（在线收听）

In its most severe scenario there was a sudden change in climate policy alongside rapid progress in renewable energy development, causing a “double shock” for companies and a severe recession.

在最严重的情况下，气候政策的突然变化伴随着可再生能源开发的快速进展，给企业带来“双重冲击”和严重的经济衰退。

Even then, banks’ capital ratios fell by about four percentage points.

即便如此，银行的资本比率仍下降了约4个百分点。

That is sizeable, but still less than what the banks experienced in this year’s regular stress tests by the European Banking Authority, which they were deemed to pass.

这一数字着实不低，但它仍低于今年欧洲银行管理局(European Banking Authority)对银行进行的常规压力测试结果，它们获得了测试通过认可。

To what extent are these stress tests realistic?

这些压力测试有多真实呢？

Mark Campanale of Carbon Tracker is sceptical, pointing out that most firms are using out-of-date models.

碳追踪公司的Mark Campanale对此持怀疑态度，他指出大多数公司使用的都是过时的模型。

If auditors were ever to stress companies’ assets against a much lower oil price, the associated write-downs could trigger a collapse in investor sentiment of the sort regulators fear, he claims.

他声称，如果审计机构在油价大幅下跌的情况下对公司资产施加压力，相关的资产减记可能会引发监管机构所担心的那种投资者情绪崩溃。

Nor do the stress tests include a full-blown Minsky crisis.

压力测试也没有包括全面的明斯基危机。

Yet in other respects they are conservative.

不过在其他方面，他们比较保守。

Most of the tests used an accelerated time frame—five years in the DNB and BdF cases—in effect assuming that firms are stuck with the balance-sheets they have today.

大多数测试使用了一个加速的时间框架——DNB和BdF是5年——其实是假设公司一直受困于眼下的资产负债表。

But it seems reasonable to think that banks and insurers will change their business models as the climate transition progresses, curbing the impact on the financial system.

但如果说，随着气候变化的发展，银行和保险公司改变它们的业务模式，遏制其对金融体系的影响，也是有道理的。

The BdF ran a second exercise where firms were allowed to make realistic changes to their business models over 30 years.

BdF进行了第二次试验，允许企业在30年的时间里对其商业模式做出实际改变。

Unsurprisingly, that allowed banks to sharply reduce lending to fossil-fuel sectors, and insurers to raise premiums.

不出所料，这使得银行大幅减少了对化石燃料行业的贷款，保险公司也提高了保费。

Nonetheless, the stress tests reveal the importance of giving firms time to adapt.

尽管如此，压力测试揭示了给公司适应时间的重要性。

And that makes a predictable path for government policy important.

因此政府政策的可预测性就变得很重要了。

The BdF found that credit losses were highest when policy was delayed and there was a sudden transition.

BdF发现，当政策推迟和突然转变时，信贷损失最高。

Perhaps the most plausible scenario in which climate change affects financial stability is one in which governments dawdle, and then have no choice but to take drastic action in the future.

在气候变化影响金融稳定的情况下，也许最可能出现的一幕是，各国政府拖拖拉拉，最后别无选择，只得采取极端行动。