2021年经济学人 美国版块--是袭击还是反恐（2）（在线收听）

Despite Mr Obama’s insistence that drones could precisely target America’s enemies, the rising volume of strikes ensured civilian casualties rose also.

尽管奥巴马坚称无人机可以精确瞄准美国的敌人，但不断增加的空袭也使平民伤亡有所上升。

With up to 560 civilian deaths in Pakistan alone from 2009 to 2011, the UN and civil society called for reform.

从2009年到2011年，仅巴基斯坦就有高达560名平民死亡，联合国和民间社会呼吁进行改革。

Guidance issued by the White House in 2013 attempted to place limits on the lethality of the drone campaign beyond Afghanistan and Iraq.

美国政府在2013年发布指导文件，试图限制无人机行动在阿富汗和伊拉克以外的杀伤力。

The document pledged strikes would not occur without a “near certainty” that non-terrorists would not be killed.

该文件承诺，如果不是“几乎确定”不会空袭，非恐怖分子也不会被杀。

It helped stem the worst excesses: by 2016, strikes caused fewer than ten civilian deaths in Pakistan, Somalia and Yemen combined.

它帮助遏制了最严重的暴行：到2016年，巴基斯坦、索马里和也门的空袭造成的平民伤亡加起来不到10人。

On the battlefield in Afghanistan, Iraq and, after 2014, Syria, military lawyers counselled commanders on targeting decisions—above a certain threshold for predicted civilian casualties, a strike would require permission from higher authorities.

在阿富汗、伊拉克和2014年后的叙利亚战场上，军方律师就攻击目标的决策向指挥官提出建议——超过了预计平民伤亡的特定门槛，攻击需要获得更高当局的许可。

Mr Obama expressed hope that this “legal architecture” could ensure “any president’s reined in.”

奥巴马表示，希望这一“法律架构”能确保“每一位总统都能受到约束”。

President Donald Trump easily discarded Mr Obama’s rules in his first year in office, giving commanders greater flexibility in choosing their targets.

美国总统唐纳德·特朗普在上任第一年就轻松抛弃了奥巴马的规则，指挥官在选择目标方面更加放肆。

The tempo of operations rose, and their reach expanded to new places like Niger.

行动的节奏加快了，他们的触角扩展到了像尼日尔这样的新地方。

Nowhere was this escalation more dramatic than in Afghanistan, where as many as 130 civilians perished in strikes in 2017. Even so, their effectiveness is open to debate.

这种升级在阿富汗最为明显，2017年有多达130名平民在袭击中丧生。即便如此，它们的有效性仍有待商榷。

In the two decades since 2001, estimates the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, DC, the number of Sunni Islamic militants grew fourfold, though thankfully they have not pulled-off a devastating attack on American soil.

据位于华盛顿的战略与国际研究中心估计，自2001年以来的20年里，逊尼派伊斯兰武装分子的数量增长了四倍，不过谢天谢地，他们没有在美国领土发动毁灭性的袭击。

“The assumption that there was no substitutability was wrong,” says Sarah Kreps of Cornell University, with new terrorist leaders replacing the dead.

康奈尔大学的萨拉·克雷普斯表示：“没有替代品的假设是错误的。”新的恐怖分子头目取代了死者。

Mr Biden has sought to rein in the excesses of his predecessor and return to a more restrained policy.

拜登试图控制特朗普的过度行为，回归更为克制的政策。

While his administration prepares new guidance, Mr Biden has required the Pentagon and CIA to seek White House approval for strikes outside Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria.

在他的政府准备新的指导方针时，拜登要求美国国防部和中央情报局在阿富汗、伊拉克和叙利亚以外的地区发动袭击时，必须征得美国政府的批准。

But Mr Biden has no intention of ending their use. He boasts that even without a presence in Afghanistan, his administration will continue to strike terrorist organisations in Afghanistan from the safety of America’s ships at sea and bases in the Middle East.

但拜登并不打算停止使用这些武器。他夸口说，即使没有在阿富汗驻军，他的政府也会继续通过安全的美国海上船只和中东基地打击阿富汗境内的恐怖组织。

Such a strategy may not prove effective, or humane. As General Kenneth “Frank” McKenzie, America’s top military official in the Middle East and Central Asia, admitted to Congress in testimony on September 28th, long-distance drone attacks necessarily rely on weaker intelligence without nearby bases and local partner forces.

这样的策略可能不会有效，也是不人道的。正如美国驻中东和中亚最高军事官员肯尼思·麦肯齐将军9月28日在国会作证时承认的那样，远程无人机袭击必然依赖于较弱的情报，并没有邻近的基地和当地的合作部队。

More mistakes, like the August 29th strike in Kabul, are thus likely even after the Pentagon completes its investigation.

因此，即使在美国国防部完成调查之后，也可能会出现更多的错误，比如8月29日对喀布尔的袭击事件。

Ms Kreps is not sure Americans will give drones much mind. “After the dust settles, we will still be using them.”

克雷普斯不确定美国人是否会重视无人机。“尘埃落定后，我们仍将继续使用它们。”